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• Key message Insurance might be an efficient tool to strengthen adaptation of forest management to climate change. A theoretical model under uncertainty is proposed to highlight the effect, on adaptation decisions, of considering adaptation efforts in forest insurance contracts. Results show that insurance is relevant to increase adaptation efforts under some realistic conditions on forest owner’s uncertainty and risk preferences, and on the observability or not of adaptation efforts. • Context One of the challenges of forest adaptation to climate change is to encourage private forest owners to implement adaptation strategies. • Aims We suggest the analysis of forest insurance contracts against natural hazards as a vector to promote the implementation of adaptation efforts by private forest owners. • Methods We propose a theoretical model of insurance economics under risk and under uncertainty. • Results Our results indicate that when climate change makes the probability of the occurrence of the natural event uncertain, then it may be relevant to include adaptation efforts in the insurance contract, leading to an increase in the adaptation efforts of risk-averse and uncertainty-averse forest owners. In addition, we show that the relevance of insurance as a vector to promote adaptation efforts is greater when the forest owner’s effort is unobservable by the insurer as compared to a situation of perfectly observable effort. • Conclusion Under some realistic assumptions, the forest insurance contract seems to be a relevant tool to encourage forest owners to adapt to climate change.

International audience Solar resource and forecasting in very short spatial and timescales (0–100 m, 0–30 min) is a challenging task that cannot be accurately achieved by satellite products or numerical weather predictions due to technical and methodological restrictions. For this reason, sky images from ground-based cameras are widely used during the last decade to deal with the high spatial and temporal variability of clouds and provide the needed inputs for numerical models for the current and forecasted (in short-term) solar irradiance. In this chapter, the available types of all-sky cameras/imagers are shortly presented. The chapter is focused on the state-of-the-art methodologies used to derive parameters needed for the estimations of solar resource and forecasting by a calibrated all-sky camera: cloud coverage, type, height, and velocity as well as aerosol optical properties. The application of these methodologies at Plataforma Solar de Almeria, in the frame of project: “Direct Normal Irradiance Nowcasting methods for optimized operation of concentrating solar technologies” (DNICast, http://www.dnicast-project.net/) is discussed. Finally, the chapter finishes with some propositions for future work in the recent, but quickly, developed research area.

In the context of Abstract geometrical computation, it has been proved that black hole model (and SAD computers) can be implemented. To be more physic-like, it would be interesting that the construction is reversible and preserves some energy. There is already a (energy) conservative and reversible two-counter automaton simulation. In the present paper, based on reversible and conservative stacks, reversible Turing machines are simulated. Then a shrinking construction that preserves these properties is presented. All together, a black hole model implementation that is reversible and conservative (both the shrinking structure and the universal Turing machine) is provided.

Les preuves pour l'existence de la matière noire (MN), sous forme d'une particule inconnue qui rempli les halos galactiques, sont issues d'observations astrophysiques et cosmologiques: son effet gravitationnel est visible dans les rotations des galaxies, des amas de galaxies et dans la formation des grandes structures de l'univers. Une manifestation non-gravitationnelle de sa présence n'a pas encore été découverte. L'une des techniques les plus prometteuse est la détection indirecte de la MN, consistant à identifier des excès dans les flux de rayons cosmiques pouvant provenir de l'annihilation ou la désintégration de la MN dans le halo de la Voie Lactée. Les efforts expérimentaux actuels se focalisent principalement sur une gamme d'énergie de l'ordre du GeV au TeV, où un signal de WIMP (Weakly Interacting Massive Particles) est attendu. L'analyse des mesures récentes et inédites des rayons cosmiques chargés (antiprotons, électrons et positrons) et leurs émissions secondaires et les améliorations des modèles astrophysiques sont présentées.Les données de PAMELA sur les antiprotons contraignent l'annihilation et la désintégration de la MN de manière similaire (et même légèrement meilleurs) que les contraintes les plus fortes venant des rayons gamma, même dans le cas où les énergies cinétiques inférieures à 10 GeV sont écartées. En choisissant des paramètres astrophysiques différents (modèles de propagation et profils de MN), les contraintes peuvent changer d'un à deux ordres de grandeur. Pour exploiter la totalité de la capacité des antiprotons à contraindre la MN, des effets précédemment négligés sont incorporés et se révèlent être importants dans l'analyse des données inédites de AMS-02 : ajouter les pertes d'énergie, la diffusion dans l'espace des moments et la modulation solaire peut modifier les contraintes, même à de hautes masses. Une mauvaise interprétation des données peut survenir si ces effets ne sont pas pris en compte. Avec les flux de protons et d'hélium exposé par AMS-02, le fond astrophysique et ces incertitudes du ratio antiprotons sur protons sont réévalués et comparés aux données inédites de AMS-02. Aucune indication pour un excès n'est trouvé. Une préférence pour un halo confinant plus large et une dépendance en énergie du coefficient de diffusion plus plate apparaissent. De nouvelles contraintes sur l'annihilation et la désintégration de la MN sont ainsi dérivés.Les émissions secondaires des électrons et des positrons peuvent aussi contraindre l'annihilation et la désintégration de la MN dans le halo galactique : le signal radio dû à la radiation synchrotron des électrons et positrons dans le champs magnétique galactique, les rayons gamma des processus de bremsstrahlung avec le gas galactique et de Compton Inverse avec le champs radiatif interstellaire sont considérés. Différentes configurations de champs magnétique galactique et de modèles de propagation et des cartes de gas et de champs radiatif interstellaire améliorés sont utilisées pour obtenir des outils permettant le calculs des émissions synchrotrons et bremsstrahlung venant de MN de type WIMP. Tous les résultats numériques sont incorporés dans la dernière version du Poor Particle Physicist Coookbook for DM Indirect Detection (PPPC4DMID).Une interprétation d'un possible excès dans les données de rayons gamma de Fermi-LAT au centre galactique comme étant dû à l'annihilation de MN en canaux hadronique et leptonique est analysée. Dans une approche de messagers multiples, le calcul des émissions secondaires est amélioré et se révèle être important pour la détermination du spectre pour le canal leptonique. Ensuite, les limites provenant des antiprotons sur l'annihilation en canal hadronique contraignent sévèrement l'interprétation de cet excès comme étant dû à la MN, dans le cas de paramètres de propagation et de modulation solaire standards. Avec un choix plus conservatif de ces paramètres elles s'assouplissent considérablement. Overwhelming evidence for the existence of Dark Matter (DM), in the form of an unknownparticle filling the galactic halos, originates from many observations in astrophysics and cosmology: its gravitational effects are apparent on galactic rotations, in galaxy clusters and in shaping the large scale structure of the Universe. On the other hand, a non-gravitational manifestation of its presence is yet to be unveiled. One of the most promising techniques is the one of indirect detection, aimed at identifying excesses in cosmic ray fluxes which could possibly be produced by DM annihilations or decays in the Milky Way halo. The current experimental efforts mainly focus in the GeV to TeV energy range, which is also where signals from WIMPs (Weakly Interacting Massive Particles) are expected. Focussing on charged cosmic rays, in particular antiprotons, electrons and positrons, as well as their secondary emissions, an analysis of current and forseen cosmic ray measurements and improvements on astrophysical models are presented. Antiproton data from PAMELA imposes contraints on annihilating and decaying DM which are similar to (or even slightly stronger than) the most stringent bounds from gamma ray experiments, even when kinetic energies below 10 GeV are discarded. However, choosing different sets of astrophysical parameters, in the form of propagation models and halo profiles, allows the contraints to span over one or two orders of magnitude. In order to exploit fully the power of antiprotons to constrain or discover DM, effects which were previously perceived as subleading turn out to be relevant especially for the analysis of the newly released AMS-02 data. In fact, including energy losses, diffusive reaccelleration and solar modulation can somewhat modify the current bounds, even at large DM masses. A wrong interpretation of the data may arise if they are not taken into account. Finally, using the updated proton and helium fluxes just released by the AMS-02 experiment, the astrophysical antiproton to proton ratio and its uncertainties are reevaluated and compared to the preliminarly reported AMS-02 measurements. No unambiguous evidence for a significant excess with respect to expectations is found. Yet, some preference for thicker halos and a flatter energy dependence of the diffusion coefficient starts to emerge. New stringed constraints on DM annihilation and decay are derived. Secondary emissions from electrons and positrons can also be used to constrain DM annihilation or decay in the galactic halo. The radio signal due to synchrotron radiation of electrons and positrons on the galactic magnetic field, gamma rays from bremsstrahlung processes on the galactic gas densities and from Inverse Compton scattering processes on the interstellar radiation field are considered. With several magnetic field configurations, propagation scenarios and improved gas density maps and interstellar radiation field, state-of-art tools allowing the computaion of synchrotron and bremssttrahlung radiation for any WIMP DM model are provided. All numerical results for DM are incorporated in the release of the Poor Particle Physicist Coookbook for DM Indirect Detection (PPPC4DMID). Finally, the possible GeV gamma-ray excess identified in the Fermi-LAT data from the Galactic Center in terms of DM annihilation, either in hadronic or leptonic channels is studied. In order to test this tantalizing interprestation, a multi-messenger approach is used: first, the computation of secondary emisison from DM with respect to previous works confirms it to be relevant for determining the DM spectrum in leptonic channels. Second, limits from antiprotons severely constrain the DM interpretation of the excess in the hadronic channel, for standard assumptions on the Galactic propagation parameters and solar modulation. However, they considerably relax if more conservative choices are adopted.

International audience Présentation des avancements de mon travail de thèse au sein du laboratoire G-SCOP, fait à l'occasion du congrès LCM2015 à Bordeuax.

The importance of wind energy has progressed rapidly in the last years. Although Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines (HAWT) are most well-spread, there is an increasing interest in Vertical Axis Wind Turbines (VAWT), especially in the H-Darrieus concept, as these rotors are omni-directional and affordable. However, the physics of these rotors is more complex; they can only be analyzed using transient CFD simulations. Due to the finite aspect ratio of the rotors, a wingtip vortex is created, which generates losses. Optimizing the wingtip geometry could be advantageous for increasing the efficiency of the rotors: this can only be achieved with three-dimensional turbulent transient simulations. For the optimization of winglets, the whole process (mesh generation, CFD computation, post-processing) has to be automated. This is achieved using the OPtimization Algorithm Library++ (OPAL++), a custom C++ code for the description of blended and canted winglets, coupled with a CD-Adapco StarCCM+ JAVA script for the automatization of the mesh generation and CFD computations. To check the viability of the present concept, two parameters have been varied in the simulations. As shown in what follows, an efficient automatic optimization of wind turbine wingtips can be implemented in this manner.

Present resource pressures and climate change (CC) should strongly impact water’s availability and agricultural systems. In this paper, we developed a prospective approach aiming to estimate the economic impact of future irrigation demand. The method includes the combination of the agro-economic model AROPAj and the STICS crop model. Three climate scenarios were simulated from 2010 to 2100. Results indicate a potential rise in water demand: +75 % for A1b versus +22% for B1 between 2010 and 2100. Increasing water prices would mitigate pressure on the resource differently depending on the region.

International audience The interest for photovoltaic (PV) generation has grown in recent years, while some areas start to witness significant penetration of PV production in the grid. However, the power output of PV plants is characterized by an important variability since it depends on meteorological conditions. Accurate forecasts of the power output of PV plants is recognized today as a necessary tool to facilitate large scale PV penetration. In this paper, we propose a statistical method for very short-term forecasting (0-6 hours) of PV plants power output. The proposed method uses distributed power plants as sensors and exploits their spatio-temporal dependencies to improve the forecasts. It uses as input only production data of the geographically distributed power plants, while its computational requirements are small making it appropriate for large-scale application.