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Achieving reductions in global anthropogenic emissions necessary to mitigate the worst effects of climate change will require significant reductions in energy demand. However, there are concerns that energy demand reductions involving lifestyle and behavioural changes might negatively impact peoples’ wellbeing. The work in this thesis studies the impacts of how people spend their time – commonly known as time-use – to try to understand whether this is the true, or whether energy demand could be reduced while improving wellbeing. Using the UK as a case study, this issue is examined by determining the energy use and wellbeing attributes of different activities and lifestyles, by modelling the impacts of shifts in time-use between activities, and by comparing the importance of three specific changes that might impact future energy use and wellbeing. Firstly, based upon existing literature it is identified that there is a need to better understand the combined energy and wellbeing impacts of different activities and lifestyles. Combining UK time-use and energy consumption data, the energy intensity, enjoyment and sociability of time is studied. Comparing these metrics for different activities suggests that since the most enjoyable (and in some cases sociable) activities are generally the least energy-intensive, acceptable (or popular) lifestyle changes might exist that reduce national energy use and improve wellbeing. However, studying changes between 2000 and 2015 shows that while the population’s time became less energy-intensive, there was little change in average enjoyment and a reduction in sociability. Segmenting the population by age reveals that an ageing population could present a challenge since energy use broadly increases with age-group while social contact reduces. However, comparing occupations highlights opportunities for specific actions that could improve wellbeing and reduce energy use, while regional differences suggest that wellbeing might be improved without increasing energy use. Having determined the energy intensity and wellbeing associated with different uses of time, the impacts of possible time-use changes are then studied. Acknowledging the difficulty in trying to predict how people might choose to re-allocate time in different situations, a sensitivity-based approach is used to study the impacts of a wide range of possible shifts in time between activities. The approach is then applied to explore the impacts of extreme lifestyle changes associated with COVID-19 lockdown measures in the UK and validated against real-world observations during the pandemic. While activity changes associated with lockdown measures reduce energy use, there are varying implications for peoples’ wellbeing, with the youngest appearing to be most negatively impacted but those able to work from home potentially benefiting. Although lockdown measures prevented some of the most enjoyable and sociable activities from happening, alternative activity changes could be supported in future that reduce energy use while improving wellbeing. Finally, time is used as a basis to compare the importance of different types of changes and help to prioritise actions. This is demonstrated by studying the combined impacts of three example changes – greater home working, changes in commuting transport modes and car intensity – on office workers’ energy use and wellbeing. The results show that working from home could have a greater impact upon office workers’ average energy use and enjoyment than changes to commuting modes, but that the social contact provided by the office could be difficult to replace. The study also demonstrates different ways that energy savings might be achieved through home working, shifts in commuting modes and changes to vehicle intensity. This approach could be used more widely to compare a broader range of changes, understand their interactions and different ways to achieve outcomes, and help to identify those changes that are most important to reduce energy use and improve wellbeing. The work presented in this thesis shows that time-use can be used as a basis to examine energy demand and wellbeing together. Using time-use to link these issues enables trade-offs or co-benefits due to different uses of time to be determined and allows rebound effects to be considered. The results suggest that reducing energy use can be achieved at the same time as improving wellbeing. The hope is that the approaches and findings presented in this thesis can provide a basis for wider discussion and a platform for future work to support climate change mitigation strategies that are positive for both the environment and society.

AbstractWith the global economy not yet 10% circular, businesses are key stakeholders in designing new forms of resource use, especially large multinationals. However, compared with the wealth of studies on ‘born sustainable’ start‐ups, there is minimal case study or interview based research into how incumbent companies are approaching this transition. Focusing on plastics, we ask: how does one incumbent multinational company approach the circular economy transition? This paper presents a case study of the incumbent multinational chemical company Dow, a leading plastics manufacturer. Varied external stressors and drivers for the circular economy act upon a company (which also has its own imperatives), resulting in tentative steps towards circular economy. To date, these steps have tweaked the existing system rather than radically altering the business model. For companies, like for the entire global economy, this transition has only just begun. This paper identifies key drivers, enablers and barriers of the circular economy, none of which are fixed or immutable. Knowing which levers for change are available and effective could help policy makers to shift gear to enable quicker progress towards circularity. Overall, broad based support and engagement is needed to progress the circular economy, hence all stakeholders have roles to play in demanding and enacting circular practices. Funder: Philanthropic donation to the University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership from Unilever Funder: Prince of Wales Fellowship in Pathways to a Circular Economy

Due to increasing demographic pressures and widespread mismanagement, Pakistan is experiencing a severe water crisis. The mismanagement of Pakistan’s resources is linked to its legacy of colonialism. Failures to reign in the stranglehold of the rural elite or invest in transformative policies is leading to a downward spiral of poverty linked to environmental degradation (European Commission 2007). However, Pakistan is rarely included in studies of IWRM, this is in spite of knowledge gaps on the potential for a more tailored forms of IWRM in countries containing semi-feudal setups and colonial based systems of water management. The research question for this study therefore focuses on aspects of IWRM that can be tailored to Pakistan’s country context using the agricultural provinces of Punjab and Sindh as case studies. Due to the emphasis on shifting away from universal approaches, a significant portion of the study analyses the type and causes of water problems and existing legislation and institutions for water management in Pakistan. Field research is utilised to further contribute to identified gaps in IWRM literature. This field research is in the form of key informant interviews with government officials, an institutional assessment of Farmers Organisations and Water User Associations, and focus group discussions with farming communities. The study finds major flaws in Pakistan’s water agreements, funding systems, and institutional framework leading to operational problems. It finds that institutions created under participatory irrigation policies have made political alliances in order to function exacerbating biases in water allocations. The study concludes that for IWRM to be effective, it must be accompanied by land redistribution to weaken the political power of landlords, legislative changes to improve the transparency of voting, improved regulations, strengthened enforcement, and greater clarity in water agreements. Donor expectations on the role of women in irrigation management must also be more realistic if they are to be represented. The study finds that due to the severity of current problems, if changes are not implemented, Pakistan will confront increasing political instability in the coming years. Centre of Development Studies Treasury funds (fees only)

Low-income urban settlements in the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) present an extreme case where catastrophic hazards (natural events) and chronic hazards (developed through lack of basic services) overlap. These low-income urban populations often occupy informal settlements that are particularly exposed to natural hazards such as flooding, and their vulnerability also reflects multiple deficiencies arising from their lack of basic services; they accordingly face the greatest challenges to adapt. The research reported in this thesis aims (i) to understand the adaptation processes of the urban poor to flooding; (ii) to develop new knowledge about bottom-up ways in which adaptation to flooding emerges and can be enhanced within households and communities in low-income urban settlements; and (iii) to identify how relevant organizations can contribute effectively to the adaptation process, from a more top-down perspective. The particular case study for the research is located in Dhaka East, where there is both high vulnerability to flooding, and also a significant proportion of the low-income population. The research has adopted a mixed methods approach involving different data collection methods primarily governed by the different scales and actors being investigated, i.e. households, communities and organizations (including government and NGOs). Hence, a questionnaire survey, focus group discussions, semi-structured interviews and transect walks have all been undertaken. The diverse forms of data deriving from these methods have been integrated using a qualitative form of systems analysis, to understand the relationships amongst the key variables in the vulnerability and adaptation system under investigation. The research has also developed a form of grounded theory on the processes whereby adaptive behaviour is learned and diffused in amongst the population at risk, and how more organizational-level procedures can positively influence these processes, and be improved where necessary. The research contributes to the advancement of knowledge about (a) the vulnerability of urban poor to flooding; (b) the adaptation process of the urban poor to flooding; (c) the role of organizations in affecting both vulnerability and adaptation amongst the urban poor; (d) a research methodology appropriate for exploring such inter-sectoral and interdisciplinary research issues. The study further provides relevant recommendations, based on conclusions from the systems analyses, which are potentially applicable in similar contexts in the LDCs in helping low-income urban populations to adapt more successfully to flooding. Notably, although the research focuses on adaptation of the urban poor to flooding in Dhaka, its conceptual, methodological and research findings are likely to be applicable in other LDCs where the urban poor are subjected to environmental risks.

Vast progress has been made in detecting rates of tropical deforestation, yet the relationship between visible patterns of forest change, multi-scalar human processes and the underlying drivers associated with them is poorly understood. Building on satellite imagery, a household livelihood survey and semi-structured interviews, this research scrutinised changes of forest cover from the mid-1990s to 2015 in a municipality located in southeastern Mexico and investigated the proximate causes and underlying drivers of change at the household and community levels. Emerging evidence indicated that, contrary to the persistent narrative of deforestation for the region, forest cover change is highly dynamic including periods of deforestation and forest recovery. Moreover, a close examination of 24 communities showed forest cover gained terrain, while the agricultural frontier retracted. Drawing on a comparison between the household survey and previous analyses, it could be inferred that forest resurgence was produced by the decrease in the farming area and the increase in the abandonment of farming activities by some communities. Associated with the adaptation of households was the development of formal and informal institutions at the community level in response to macro-global forces linked to the implementation of forest conservation strategies, environmental degradation, market liberalization and increased urbanization. Overall, this research adds not only to our understanding of the complexity of land-use and cover change in emerging globalized economies but also exemplifies the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of tropical forest systems, which challenges partial models of deforestation and policies designed to reduce it. The research may be focused on a narrow region of the globe, nevertheless, the insights and recommendation provided may be useful to further forest conservation schemes in other tropical regions. Science and Technology Council of Mexico (CONACYT), Cambridge Trust, The University of Cambridge Conservation Research Institute, The Society for Latin American Studies, The Biogeography Research Group of the Royal Geographical Society and the Philippe Lake Fund II (Department of Geography, University of Cambridge).

The urban population in China has grown from around 190 million in 1980 to over 800 million in 2020 – this is about twice the total population of the United States and 1.5 times the total population of the European Union. Driven by policy, China’s rapid urbanisation has gone hand-in-hand with densification, especially for housing. Yet current urban restructuring policy in China, with a technological template and economic focus, hardly considers the lived experience of residents. The policy also fails to address patterns of energy consumption from the demand-side, i.e. how the domestic energy patterns have been shaped and what influences them. Drawing from a practice theory perspective, this research aims to bridge this gap by capturing the households’ lived experience and energy use, in a restructured high-rise, high-density neighbourhood. This research focuses on the role of materiality in shaping domestic practices in Jinan, Shandong Province, China, distinguishing between “stayers” and “newcomers” in the area. The research asks: what are the effects of neighbourhood restructuring on social capital and domestic energy demand, and its implications on policy and design? The study adopts a practice-based approach to understand the lived experience and energy use. The focus is less on density as a ratio and more on how density is produced, experienced, perceived, negotiated, and contested. By using a mixed-methods approach, including in-depth interviews, questionnaire survey, observations, transect walks, document analysis, and “home tours”, a comprehensive understanding of the changing materiality (building design, technologies, appliances, and energy infrastructure) and culture, norms, and values behind their practices is developed. The research reveals that the neighbourhood restructuring in the case study neighbourhood has led to a general decline in the neighbourhood’s social capital, and to an increase in domestic energy demand, challenging the concept of sustainability paradigm of compact forms. The findings suggest that, in fact, densification may also accelerate unsustainable, digitalised, and indoor-oriented lifestyles as unforeseen consequences of the densified high-rise typology. This is reflected as: a) the “stayers” who have moved from courtyard housing, have shifted from outdoor-oriented practices to indoor-oriented patterns, resulting in an increased appliance ownership at home, as well as a low-frequency-bathing and high-frequency-showering pattern; and b) the “newcomers” who in the survey were identified to consume the highest level of domestic energy, associated with extended families, usage of pre-installed central AC system, digitalisation of studying, socialising, and entertainment practices at home especially among children, and minimal use of the outdoor space. The study draws policy and design recommendations, and expands the application of practice-based theories to the context of domestic energy demand in China. It adds to the limited research on energy demand as an outcome of social practices in a non-Western context.

As developing countries seek to improve their economic prospects, electricity reform has been widely viewed as a central part of this effort.While the focus of most research to date has been at economy or utility level; there has been much less research on regional outcomes. India presents a unique case, as its states share a common economic and political system, whilst having been given considerable flexibility in how they implement reform, thus allowing a comparative analysis of alternative approaches. This study contributes through an econometric analysis of the determinants and impact of electricity reform in India, giving special regard to its political economy and regional diversity. It assesses how electricity reform in India has affected key economic variables that determine sectoral efficiency, prices and investment flows. We use panel data for 19 states, spanning 1991-2007, using dynamic panel data estimators. Results show that individual reform measures have affected key economic variables differently; thus the nature of reform in individual states would determine these economic outcomes. Findings suggest that due to political economy factors influencing reform, outcomes have tended to be adverse in the initial stages, as previously hidden distortions become apparent. The performance of reforms, however, may improve as it progresses beyond a ‘baseline’ level.

This study explores the link between energy spending and health satisfaction. We aim to show that energy spending is a driver of health satisfaction and therefore of the overall quality of life of individuals. This has important implications for policy makers especially in the context of fuel poor and low-income households. The analysis tests the hypothesis that health satisfaction decreases with increasing energy spending per room. Households with high energy spending tend to live in inefficiently insulated homes that are not heated adequately. We use a British panel household survey dataset with more than 60,000 observations covering the period 1997 to 2007. We apply a fixed effects econometric model which enables us to take unobservable heterogeneity between households into account.

Governments have known for more than half a century that emitting greenhouse gases increases temperatures and puts lives at risk. Yet global mitigation is minimal, for all the feted net zero commitments: emissions from fossil fuels have risen in every decade since records began. Some countries have made progress, including the United Kingdom where emissions have halved since 1990. But progress has so far relied on low-hanging fruit---the closure of coal mines; offshoring of industry; the recent growth of wind power. Future decarbonisation will be more challenging. Interdisciplinary collaboration, between scientists, engineers and economists among others, is necessary to overcome our carbon addiction. This thesis asks how best to achieve urgent mitigation. It focuses on public policy as a lever for decarbonisation; governments' cross-sectoral influence authority to enforce give them unique power to accelerate change. Research is undertaken in three parts. The first part considers the political economy of slow mitigation. It considers how political institutions and public beliefs affect the urgency of decarbonisation. Climate action faces opposition from incumbents and vested interests. This has led to a culture of myopic climate policy, defined as a high long- to short-term mitigation ratio. Every year mitigation is delayed makes it harder to achieve in future, transferring the burden from today's citizens to the future's. Moreover, public views over the issue salience of climate policy are lower than scientists', implying biased voter beliefs that impede adoption of the urgent policies needed to create near-term mitigation. This thesis postulates that policy myopia and biased beliefs can be ameliorated by setting a binding target on cumulative emissions, known as a carbon stock budget. For politicians, a carbon stock budget is an effective commitment mechanism. For the public, carbon stock framing alludes to threshold risks and appeals to the concept of household budgeting, both of which increase support for urgent policy. An economic model is presented that compares outcomes under a carbon stock budget and incremental climate policy. Results show that a budget increases nominal output by 40% in 2100. Implementing a carbon stock budget would help overcome barriers to meaningful decarbonisation. Mitigation can be achieved with new technologies, new behaviours or a combination of both. The second part of this thesis asks what history can teach us about technological and social transitions. Researchers have previously analysed past energy transitions, but no studies have yet reviewed social transitions for clues about future decarbonisation. Here, five large-scale energy and seven social transitions are assessed in detail. Historical reviews are combined with metrics on transition progress. Results show that all transitions go through common stages and face similar challenges and opportunities. These are summarised in two transition frameworks, which enable measurement of the duration and scale of each transition. Technological transitions tend to be slower than their social counterparts, and delays between conception and growth are four decades longer for new technologies. Uptake also tends to be slower: technologies averaged an annual growth rate of 1.6%, versus 4% for social transitions. History suggests that social change could play an important role in achieving net zero by 2050. The final part of this thesis asks what current climate strategies imply for the UK's timeline to net zero. It considers decarbonisation through the lens of disruption. A novel metric is proposed, which quantifies technological and behavioural disruption by measuring the implied change in a market or activity. A review of twelve proposed decarbonisation strategies yields 98 mitigation options and 538 distinct proposals. Applying the novel metric to these proposals reveals a bias towards technological mitigation. Two thirds of mitigation options rely solely on new technologies, one fifth rely on behavioural change, the remainder on a mix of both. Given the evidence that technological change can be slower than social change, these results suggest that the prevailing technological bias may impede near-term mitigation in the UK. This research contributes to a growing discussion of alternative approaches to net zero. It supports a new climate narrative: one in which policymakers can overcome political barriers to ambitious, near-term action, by reframing climate targets and matching technological deployment with effective behaviour change. The fundamental contributions of this thesis are threefold. It postulates a political argument for a carbon stock budget by linking theories of myopic policy and biased voting. It develops a new method to compare the pace of social and technological transitions, and illustrates the relative promise of social change. Finally, it proposes a novel metric to capture disruption in decarbonisation strategies and shows that proposals for the UK are technologically biased. Governments across the globe have pledged to reach net zero emissions by 2050. To live up to these promises, they must create change in the present by matching investment in prospective technologies with policies that utilise existing technologies and behavioural change. Accelerating the delivery of climate targets will require a balanced transition that places urgency at the heart of climate policymaking.