CONFER is a multi-national collaboration to bolster resilience to climate impacts and reduce disaster risk in East Africa, potentially reaching 365 million people in eleven countries. Our main objective is to co-develop dedicated climate services for the water, energy and food security sectors with stakeholders and end-users, to enhance their ability to plan for and adapt to seasonal climate fluctuations. The scientific work in CONFER is ambitious and aims to break new ground along three inter-related tracks. First, we will secure end-user engagement by using the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Fora, which are held three times per year and attract about 200 stakeholders, as platforms for co-production of new and dedicated climate services for our focus sectors. By fostering a two-way dialogue between our scientists and a large group of stakeholders and end-users, we will create enthusiasm and raise awareness to ensure that the value of our new science and products is fully realized by those who need them the most. Second, we will improve on the accuracy and local detail of numerical prediction model outputs for East Africa, with a particular focus on seasonal prediction. Third, we will develop statistical and machine learning tools to obtain a new level of seasonal forecast skill based on numerical models and high-resolution satellite data. We will also involve our scientific experts in a large training and capacity development programme designed to enhance climate information uptake in our focus sectors. Our research and outreach address important IPCC topics, the sustainable development goals, and the expected impacts in the call for proposals. We will aim to influence policymaking through frequent interaction with stakeholders at the climate outlook fora, by publishing policy briefs, and by organizing an open conference on climate services in Africa.

This proposal seeks to assess how migration governance has been influenced by the recent ‘refugee crisis’, and how crises at large shape policy responses on migration. Since the beginning of the ‘refugee crisis’ in 2014, different policy responses have been put forward by governments and international organisations alike. Albeit very different from one another, these different responses had two common traits: - They were generally presented as the sole realistic solution in the face of a situation that was often characterized as ‘unsustainable’. - They were often geared towards a more efficient control and surveillance of the borders. As the humanitarian crisis and the dire situation in countries such as Italy, Greece or Hungary should have prompted more cooperation in the EU, policy responses usually hinted at less cooperation, with the notable exception of the control and surveillance of the EU external border. This meant that the humanitarian crisis in the Mediterranean soon transformed into a political crisis with the EU, culminating in the Brexit referendum, where the issue of border control played a decisive role in the decision of the British electorate to leave the EU. As an attempt to revive the idea of a global governance of migration, the United Nations issued on 19 September 2016 the New York Declaration, which led to the launch of the Global Compacts on Migration and Refugees - both are them are still being negotiated at the time of submitting this proposal. Therefore, MAGYC seeks to appraise these policy responses in the light of the crisis and assess their efficiency for the long-term governance of migration.

The HABITABLE project is centred around the concept of habitability and seeks to advance our understanding of how climate change does and will affect migration and displacement patterns. It does so through the mobilisation of innovative methods to explore key research gaps, implemented by a diverse, experienced consortium associating 21 partners from different disciplines and representing a number of regions of the world, including local partners from West Africa, East Africa, South Africa and Southeast Asia. The project seeks to understand not only how climate change causes migration, but also how climate impacts, policies and perceptions interact with each other and influence migration patterns in a systems-based approach. We introduce the concept of social tipping points as a fresh way to understand how environmental disruptions can potentially trigger major social changes. The project intentionally steers away from simple linearity assumptions in an innovative research design that will focus on the entire social-ecological system, accounting for climate impacts and their perceptions, as well as adaptation options and their implementation, in order to determine the conditions for social tipping points and sustainable policy options for preventing large-scale displacement. The project mobilizes fresh methodologies and datasets in case-studies in Africa and Asia that are relevant for European policy-making. The project pursues a non-deterministic understanding of the impact of climate change on migration, and enables a systematic comprehension and appreciation of the complex social, economic and environmental interactions involved. This allows us to develop policy-relevant migration scenarios. On this basis, the project will propose a number of adaptation options for populations affected by climate change, as well as recommendations to inform key policies, in particular the European Agenda on Migration.