For low viscosity magmas such as basalts, rapid and unpredictable transitions between effusive and explosive activity may occur. These transitions dramatically alter the impact of an eruption and pose a real challenge to policymakers tasked with mitigating the risks associated with basaltic eruptions. Mechanisms controlling these transitions, however, are not well understood, mainly due to the lack of a clear understanding of basaltic magma fragmentation. The ENDGAME project proposes to investigate transitions in eruptive styles at basaltic volcanoes by studying fragmentation of basaltic magmas through a combination of targeted cutting-edge fluid dynamics experiments, new holistic numerical modelling of magma ascent and brand new field observations collected during a basaltic eruption. ENDGAME will aim to: 1) define new constitutive equations for basaltic magma fragmentation by implementing and performing jet flow and shock-tube experiments with a bubble- and particle-bearing analogue material in combination with high-speed Schlieren shadow photography; 2) extend a state-of-the-art 3D transient model of magma ascent to model the evolution of the particle-size distribution resulting from fragmentation through time by using a numerical technique which has been recently applied in volcanology, the “Method of Moments”; 3) use the new 3D magma ascent model to investigate the transitions in eruptive style by comparing numerical results with laboratory experiments and field observations that will be collected during an eruption at Piton de la Fournaise. The interdisciplinary approach that characterizes ENDGAME, e.g. linking cutting-edge fluid-dynamics experiments with state-of-the-art 3D magma ascent modelling and field observations of an active eruption, will allow us to shed light on one of the biggest challenges in volcanic hazard assessment: what parameters and how they control the transition in eruptive style at basaltic volcanoes?

Earthquakes are one of the most expressive phenomena of our planet, able to suddenly reshape the surface of the Earth and affect countless lives every year. Any effort towards earthquake forecast and hazard mitigation must rely on a profound comprehension of seismogenesis. However, earthquakes are phenomena that emerge from a complex, dynamic system of mechanisms that operate at inaccessible depths within the Earth. The impossibility to directly observe the birth of an earthquake (i.e., the nucleation) frustrates our effort to have new breakthroughs on their physics. The overarching goal of OMEN is to directly observe the mechanisms of earthquake nucleation to allow for a step-change in our understanding of seismic slip and its potential precursors. OMEN will overcome the current experimental approaches that rely only on the indirect measure of sample properties and/or use of rock-analogue materials. With an innovative rock-deformation apparatus and the use of transparent high-tech glass, I will be able to simulate and, for the first time, film the birth of earthquakes in natural fault rocks at hypocentral conditions. This method, in combination with several investigation techniques (visible and infrared footage, acoustic emissions, deep learning-assisted image analysis etc.), will offer unprecedented detail on the processes during the preparation and propagation of seismic slip. In particular, I will shed new light on how the complexity of natural rocks affect the dynamics, resulting into the formulation of a new, more reliable physical framework for the description of earthquake nucleation. Laboratory and theoretical results will be upscaled to nature thanks to the integration of microstructural and field studies of natural faults. OMEN is the unique opportunity to open a literal window into the dynamics of earthquakes, shifting the paradigm from an empirically quantitative documentation to a direct and truly quantitative observation.

Comprehensive seismic programs undertaken in the past few years, combined with emerging new numerical technologies now provide the potential, for the first time, to explore in detail the Earth’s interior. However, such an integrated approach is currently not contemplated, which produces physical inconsistencies among the different studies that strongly bias our understanding of the Earth’s internal structure and dynamics. Of particular concern are nowadays apparent thermo-petrological anomalies in tomographic images that are generated by the unaccounted-for anisotropic structure of the mantle and that are commonly confused with real thermo-petrological features. Given the diffuse mantle seismic anisotropy, apparent thermo-petrological anomalies contaminate most tomographic models against which tectono-magmatic models are validated, representing a critical issue for the present-day window. Here we aim to develop a new methodology that combines state-of-the-art geodynamic modelling and seismological methods. The new methodology will allow building robust anisotropic tomographic models that will exploit anisotropy predictions from petrological-thermomechanical modelling to decompose velocity anomalies into isotropic (true thermo-petrological) and anisotropic (mechanically-induced) components. As a major outcome, we expect to provide a new, geodynamically and seismologically constrained perspective of the current deep structure and tectono-magmatic evolution of different tectonic settings. This new methodology will be applied to the Mediterranean and the Cascadia subduction zone where, despite the abundant seismological observations, large uncertainties about the subsurface structure and tectono-magmatic evolution persist. Furthermore, we plan to develop a new inversion technique for seismic anisotropy, and release an open source, sophisticated code for mantle fabric modelling, which will allow coupling geodynamic and seismological modelling in other tectonic settings.