OVERCOME consortium include world-leading organisations to develop state-of-the-art research plan that integrates digital innovations in natural hazard and risk predictions in order to develop intervention strategies for strengthening the resilience of vulnerable communities against climate hazards and health impacts. The partners from the UK, Ghana, Malawi, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe will contribute knowledge and skills in climate and meteorology, hydrology and water resources, flood forecasting, droughts, water quality, epidemiology and public health, smart technologies, data science, environmental science, Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH), risk communication, disaster management, social and policy sciences, and socio-economics. The collaboration will combine multidisciplinary knowledge to develop a novel holistic framework to forecast the impact of floods/droughts and associated disease outbreaks. OVERCOME also has strong support from global experts and local major stakeholders. The external partners will steer research direction throughout the project, contribute their complementary knowledge, and engage the team with additional partners through their strong international networking. OVERCOME will organise a kick-off meeting in one African partner's country to (1) brief our research ideas to the key stakeholders in African countries; (2) allow for all parties involved to learn from each other the capacity that each institution can contribute to the OVERCOME consortium; (3) understand the expectations that the stakeholders have on the project; (4) identify the knowledge gaps in research and the extra expertise required within the consortium. Following the kick-off meeting, the lead partners in Ghana, Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe will further reach out to additional partners in their countries to complement the skills within the consortium. Networking and Capacity Building Workshops (NCBWs) will be organised to incorporate local stakeholders for co-designing research methodology and outcomes to ensure that the project outputs will be adopted by stakeholders for real-world practices to deliver long-term impact to communities. Local Stakeholder Engagement Workshops will be held for local stakeholders to review and feedback on the final second stage proposal. The participants will evaluate the objectives and planned tasks from WGs for shaping research topics to benefit most stakeholders and vulnerable communities. The engagement can also examine and guarantee the feasibility of proposed solutions. We will also synergise with other consortia, projects, and professional groups to further strengthen the consortium, enhance the research vision, collect data for the full research, and widen the impact from the project.

By modifying the amount of solar radiation absorbed at the land surface, bright snow and dark forests have strong influences on weather and climate; either a decrease in snow cover or an increase in forest cover, which shades underlying snow, increases the absorption of radiation and warms the overlying air. Computer models for weather forecasting and climate prediction thus have to take these effects into account by calculating the changing mass of snow on the ground and interactions of radiation with forest canopies. Such models generally have coarse resolutions ranging from kilometres to hundreds of kilometres. Forest cover cannot be expected to be continuous over such large distances; instead, northern landscapes are mosaics of evergreen and deciduous forests, clearings, bogs and lakes. Snow can be removed from open areas by wind, shaded by surrounding vegetation or sublimated from forest canopies without ever reaching the ground, and these processes which influence patterns of snow cover depend on the size of the openings, the structure of the vegetation and weather conditions. Snow itself influences patterns of vegetation cover by supplying water, insulating plants and soil from cold winter temperatures and storing nutrients. The aim of this project is to develop better methods for representing interactions between snow, vegetation and the atmosphere in models that, for practical applications, cannot resolve important scales in the patterns of these interactions. We will gather information on distributions of snow, vegetation and radiation during two field experiments at sites in the arctic: one in Sweden and the other in Finland. These sites have been chosen because they have long records of weather and snow conditions, easy access, good maps of vegetation cover from satellites and aircraft and landscapes ranging from sparse deciduous forests to dense coniferous forests that are typical of much larger areas. Using 28 radiometers, and moving them several times during the course of each experiment, will allow us to measure the highly variable patterns of radiation at the snow surface in forests. Information from the field experiments will be used in developing and testing a range of models. To reach the scales of interest, we will begin with a model that explicitly resolves individual trees and work up through models with progressively coarser resolutions, testing the models at each stage against each other and in comparison with observations. The ultimate objective is a model that will be better able to make use of landscape information in predicting the absorption of radiation at the surface and the accumulation and melt of snow. We will work in close consultation with project partners at climate modelling and forecasting centres to ensure that our activities are directed towards outcomes that will meet their requirements.

Air pollution is the environmental factor with the greatest impact on human health in Europe. Despite substantial emission controls, the complexities of the processes linking emissions and air quality, means that substantial proportions - 80% and 97%, respectively, of the population in Europe lives in cities with levels of particulate matter (PM) and ozone (O3) exceeding EU limit and target values. The two pollutants are estimated to contribute 350,000 and 200,000 premature deaths across Europe. NERC's strategy document states: "In the UK, air pollution costs the economy £15 billion every year in damage to human health, not including the cost of damage to our environment and crops." Understanding the key processes driving air quality across the relevant spatial scales, especially during pollution exceedances and episodes, is essential to provide effective prediction for both policymakers and the public. It is particularly important for policy regulators to understand the drivers of local air quality that can be regulated by national policies versus the contribution from regional pollution transported from mainland Europe or elsewhere. Urban areas are of particular concern since as well as being receptors of regional pollution, they have high local emissions from heating and road transport associated with their high population densities. They are also subject to an urban heat island effect which can impact on the chemistry of air pollution. Our overall aim is to use state-of-the-art modelling and measurements to quantify and reduce uncertainties in the key regional and local processes that control poor air quality in urban areas, both for present-day and in the future. This proposal will develop a novel model framework using a nested suite of models to bridge scales from regional to urban for simulating atmospheric composition and weather including urban heat island effects across the UK and over London. The proposal will further exploit state-of-the-art NERC measurements from recent ClearfLo and REPARTEE field campaigns in London bringing together modelling and measurements experts to determine controlling factors of high O3 and PM events. A detailed box model of the chemical environment based on these field measurements will be constructed, and used to calculate in situ chemical production of O3 during both average and episodic conditions. The coupled regional to urban model will be evaluated against these box model and field campaign results as well as extensive network measurements. Multiple approaches will be used to probe the regional and local contributions to O3 during high O3 events. The key processes driving PM episodes will also be determined using speciated field measurements and coupled model results. The role of nitrous acid on O3 and PM oxidation chemistry in urban areas is a key uncertainty that will be quantified. Air pollution events in the UK are usually associated with stagnation events, which in summer may be coincident with heatwaves. During heatwaves weather conditions may alter emission and deposition processes. The relative importance of these processes, such as reduced O3 deposition, that lead to elevated pollution levels will be established. To investigate the impact of future emissions and climate change on urban air quality, high-resolution climate-chemistry simulations that consistently account for changes in chemistry and transport from the regional to city scale will be performed and future impacts on air quality extremes evaluated. Proof of concept studies with the coupled model framework and with high-resolution climate projections demonstrate the viability of the intended research. This proposal comprises a strong collaboration between modelling and measurement scientists spanning the disciplines of fundamental chemistry, atmospheric composition, and climate change, to advance our understanding of the processes driving regional to urban-scale air quality now and in the future.

We propose a network to stimulate new international collaboration in measuring and understanding the surface temperatures of Earth. This will involve experts specialising in different types of measurement of surface temperature, who do not usually meet. Our motivation is the need for better understanding of in situ measurements and satellite observations to quantify surface temperature as it changes from day to day, month to month. Knowing about surface temperature variations matters because these affect ecosystems and human life, and the interactions of the surface and the atmosphere. Surface temperature (ST) is also the main indicator of "global warming". Knowledge of ST for >150 years has been derived from in situ meteorological and oceanographic measurements. These have been fundamental to weather forecasting, to environmental sciences, and to detection and attribution of climate change. Thermal remote sensing of ST from space has a ~30 year history, including operational exploitation. Observations of high accuracy and stability come from the 20-year record of Along Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSRs) . ATSR-class capability will shortly become operational in the space segment of Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES), and will continue until at least 2030. The best insight into ST variability and change through the 21st century will come from jointly using in situ and multi-platform satellite observations. There is a clear need and appetite to improve the interaction of scientists across the in-situ/satellite 'divide' and across all domains of Earth's surface. This will accelerate progress in improving the quality of individual observations and the mutual exploitation of different observing systems over a range of applications. Now is a critical time to initiate this research network. First, the network will link closely to a major new initiative to improve quantification of ST from surface meteorological stations (surfacetemperatures.org). Second, there are areas of acute need to improve understanding of ST: e.g., across regions of Africa, where in situ measurements are very sparse; and across the Arctic, where the evolving seasonal sea ice extent challenges the current practices for quantifying ST variability and change. Third, it is timely to share experience between remote sensing communities. All these motivations are present against a backdrop where ST is, in relation to climate change, of current public interest & relevance to policy. This network will increase the international impact of UK science. UK investigators are involved across the full scope of the proposed ST network, and have leading international roles in several areas. The network will ensure UK participation at the highest level across all domains of ST research. In this proposal, key world-class organisations overseas have roles in steering and/or hosting network activities. The network will welcome participation of others not contacted in preparation of this proposal. Permission will be sought from the originators of all data used for case studies to make the data set freely available. The network will be organised around three themes over three years: Year 1. In situ and satellite ST observations: challenges across Earth's domains Year 2: Quantifying surface temperature across Arctic Year 3: Joint exploitation of in situ and satellite surface temperatures in key land regions. The first theme is an inclusive question, designed to bring together research communities and develop a full picture of common research needs and aspirations. The second theme is a pressing research question to which the network will co-ordinate a useful and unique contribution. The third theme is one of long-term interest and importance in the strengthening of the observational foundations for climate change monitoring and diagnosis.

There is a large and convincing body of epidemiological evidence linking short term exposure to outdoor air pollutants to adverse health effects. However, most of this evidence is derived from studies that have linked single pollutants to health in urban environments. There is increasing recognition that greater protection against the adverse health effects of air pollution could be achieved by focusing research and policy not on individual pollutants, but by a multi-pollutant approach. Furthermore, the spatial variation in pollutant concentrations and their health impacts, especially in rural areas and areas outside the larger cities where much of the UK population reside, are not-well established. Socio-economic impacts (and related issues of environmental justice) and other geographically-determined factors, including housing characteristics (indoor pollution), are also potential modifiers of exposure to outdoor air pollution. The increasing complexity of the scientific inquiry is matched by the difficulties of formulating, proving and implementing appropriate regulatory policy. This proposal builds upon an existing collaboration between researchers in the environmental and health disciplines, with the addition of investigators and practitioners from the policy and social science fields. Our proposal aims to provide new epidemiological evidence on the health impacts of exposure to multiple pollutants; to examine the implications of such evidence for regulation and control of air quality; and to assess how uncertainties in evidence affect its translation into actionable evidence-based policies and the evaluation of their costs and benefits. There are several unique innovations in our study: 1) the development of long series of high resolution (5 km) datasets for daily concentrations of a range of pollutants and weather data, linked to geo-referenced health data including daily mortality, hospital admissions and data on heart attacks; 2) an examination of the contribution of the indoor environment as a modifier of exposure to outdoor pollutants to provide an integrated assessment of the risks to health of short term exposure to air pollution; 3) an integrated assessment of the health effects of various near-term future air quality and climate policies in 2030 as well as selected emissions reduction policies for the UK; 4) the development of a 'decision analysis' tool that includes assessment of uncertainties and can be used to infer the likely outcomes of these various policy choices.