General Summary: Our work brings together data on developmental rate of fish larvae, population genetics, ocean circulation and the environment (specifically temperature) to generate predictions of recruitment that can be tested. This provides us with a powerful tool for tackling the uncertainty that characterizes the dynamics of wild populations in a rapidly changing world. Many fish populations, as all species living in nature, are exposed to a wide variety of changes in the environment that determine their abundance and distribution. Some changes are natural and include such things as alterations in food supply or number of mates, while others are largely driven by man-made activities, of which climate change and exploitation are two major types. Since fish form a major component of natural ecosystems in providing food for many other animals, and are predators of many groups, and since they also form a major source of human food globally, it is important that we estimate the role of various environmental changes on their dynamics, especially as many fish populations have recently collapsed, or are only in early stages of recovery. Here we examine, using several fish species from a well characterised region of the Antarctic, the potential effect that an increase in temperature might have on the numbers of fish entering the adult population ('recruitment'), and more specifically the rate at which their larvae develop. It is well established that at higher temperatures, larvae that rely on yolk resources for nutrition will exhaust these supplies more quickly at higher temperatures, meaning they may not reach appropriate feeding grounds in time to develop into adults. In such circumstances, fewer young will recruit to the next generation of individuals, and since dispersal among sites will be reduced, populations would be expected to lose connectivity, which has follow-on effects on population and ecosystem resilience. We will examine how likely such effects are by observing fish larvae of several species differing slightly in their life history larval characteristics, and compare their rates of development in relation to fluctuations in temperature. We test whether higher temperatures do indeed lead to faster development by two means: (1) with live larvae acclimated to different temperatures regimes within a season, and (2) with archived larval specimens sampled from the wild across multiple years in which developmental temperature regimes varied. We then take this information and add it to Individual Based Models incorporating ocean circulation and biological characteristics of each species, thus creating species-specific biophysical models. This allows us to test whether any changes in rate of development will influence the likelihood of larvae reaching appropriate feeding grounds and recruiting to the adult population. Model predictions of dispersal for the present-day will be validated by comparison with inferred dispersal from genetic analyses, and an assessment of dispersal variability due to interannual oceanographic variability will allow the effects of increased temperature to be placed in context. It will then be possible to make predictions about the likely effects of the predicted increases in temperature in the area on fish recruitment as a component of climate change. Such information is important since climate records from the Antarctic show that the waters of the Antarctic are warming more rapidly than the global ocean as a whole. Not only is this significant for much of the biodiversity that is unique to the Antarctic, but the Southern Ocean is known to influence climates globally. Ultimately, our integration of environmentally relevant data taken from nature, with genetically validated 'biophysical' models will enable a more realistic projection of the impact of ocean warming on marine species and ecosystems.

The trade-off/synergy dilemma between economic development and ecosystem services is one of the major issues of sustainable rural development. The main research objective of TRUSTEE is to disentangle the complex relationships between economic development and ecosystem services at different spatial scales and on a large European gradient of rural and rural/urban areas. The project implements an interdisciplinary approach bringing together economists, geographers, agronomists, and ecologists. Sub-objectives are: (i) analyse the multi-scaled determinants of economic development and ecosystem services; (ii) increase our understanding of how to achieve mutual benefits for economic development in rural areas and ecosystem services; (iii) identify and assess the governance mechanisms and policy instruments that enhance sustainable rural vitality; (iv) produce synergies among international researchers of varied disciplines and between researchers and various stakeholders at different governance scales. The work plan relies on seven work packages that involve a cross-cutting strategy linking analyses at various scales (Pan European, gradient of EU countries, local case studies). TRUSTEE will provide a first quantification of the many–to-many relationship between ecosystem services and economic development. It will also produce (i) a large scale inventory of the socioeconomic and policy drivers of ecosystem service sets (ii) a large scale assessment of unlocking ecosystem service potential for rural economic development and (iii) a first internalization of ecosystem services in models of economic development. TRUSTEE will also produce analytical tools incorporating scenarios and policy instruments for the assessment of ecosystem services and their impact on rural development. Last, TRUSTEE will build capacity for interaction between a broad range of academics, experts, stakeholders and policy makers.

Peatlands form in wet environments where the organic matter built up by plants every year is not fully degraded. This means that, over time, partly degraded organic matter accumulates as peat locking away huge quantities of carbon. We call such areas 'carbon sinks' and through this process, peatlands moderate the Earth's climate. When carefully managed they are our most carbon-rich ecosystems on land. Unfortunately, due to poor management, they are currently our most intensive source of carbon dioxide emissions from land, amplifying climate change in the same way as burning fossil fuels. The primary means by which peatlands are damaged is drainage, which lowers the water table. This changes how peatlands function, and as a consequence, such areas switch from carbon sinks to carbon sources. Around the world, 10-15% of all peatlands have been impacted by drainage, and use as cropland, production forests, and grazing. In the UK and more widely across Europe, so many peatlands have been altered that >50% of former peat accumulating habitat has been lost. As part of the effort to reduce global emissions, governments across Europe have invested significant sums in peatland restoration efforts, however it is unclear whether these efforts will be successful in the light of climate change, particularly increasing global temperature and changes to rainfall patterns. In this project, we will investigate whether degraded peatlands differ from natural peatlands in the way they react to climate change. Using sites across the European climate gradient, we will examine what effect variations in weather over several years have on GHG emissions from natural and disturbed peatlands. Using a regional-to-global scale model to simulate future weather to 2100, we will use our new information to enable better policy decisions to sustainably manage peatlands. This will be achieved in the following way: First, we will determine how differences in climate and management affect how peatlands function, using measurements from 44 micrometeorological stations and thousands of satellite (Earth Observation) data points across Europe. The satellite data will enable us to understand processes on a far larger landscape scale than the field data. We will also use satellite data to determine the physical up-and-down movement of 15 exemplar peatlands relative to climatic drivers, as this is an important mechanism by which peatland water tables self-regulate. We will then model fine-scale water flows across these 15 landscapes to estimate how climate, vegetation and water flows interact in peatlands. Second, using the above observations and models we will develop and test a peatland version of a regional- to global-scale model: the Joint UK Land-Environment Simulator (JULES). JULES can model what happens to our environment under climatic change across the globe, but currently is unable to deal with peatlands. Finally, with the new JULES-PEAT model, we will be able to predict how UK and European peatlands will behave under climate change and current land use, and what strategies should be taken to minimise future carbon losses. We will develop scenarios of such strategies with our project partners and run a series of international workshops to compare the new JULES-PEAT model against other global climate models, in order to advance better global forecasting of climate change effects on peatlands as a whole and to find the best possible future management solutions for peat soils to mitigate climate change. Working with partners with UK/EU policy links, this will provide solid data for future peatland policies and management on the ground.