Decision-makers in the developing and developed world are notoriously poor at considering the risk that an investment or intervention could fail to achieve its objectives. This is also true for groundwater development projects in African drylands. Social and environmental sustainability of groundwater refers to a fair distribution of this natural asset between users and across generations. Aquifers are one component of groundwater and require particularly careful management, particularly fossil aquifers, which do not replenish naturally. The risk is that current use of an aquifer will draw down on the water needs of future generations. To achieve sustainability, there is a need to properly assess any new water abstraction infrastructure, such as a pipeline to supply a town. The accuracy of such assessments is weakened by the fact that the current practice inadequately addresses uncertainties surrounding the impacts of increased groundwater use, particularly the impact of groundwater development on the aquifer and the people that relying upon it. Uncertainties around the impacts of groundwater development are particularly high for aquifers in dryland areas since information on the current geo-hydrological parameters and how these will evolve under future change is typically scarce. Thus, the proposed research will first develop a conceptual framework on how to address uncertainties around ground water development in data scarce areas. Second, it will use this to model the uncertainties around investments that significantly increase groundwater use. Third, the project aims to assess the social impacts of these increased water abstractions. To this end, it will assemble information, including the visions and perspectives of various stakeholders and groundwater users to support dialogue on how to achieve sustainable water use for Kenya's largest aquifer, the fossil Merti aquifer in arid northeastern Kenya. This aquifer provides water to the world's largest refugee camp, population 630,000, and may already be over-utilized. Furthermore, it feeds the Juba River, which runs through southern Somalia, the discharge of which is decreasing. The project will focus on plans -- already far advanced -- to increase abstractions from the Merti aquifer to supply drinking water to the city of Wajir. The initiation of a dialogue is complicated by scarce and unreliable data and lack of synthetic insight into the consequences of current and future use. Thus the challenge is to develop the information, which acknowledges uncertainties around the outcomes of the planned groundwater development to support a sustainable management approach in a data-scarce environment. The models that will be developed will assess the level of uncertainty and value of information of the basic geo-hydrological parameters. This value of information approach will serve as guidance for selection of key parameters to focus on for a follow up proposal to the next UPGro round with a view to supporting initiatives to manage the aquifer to achieve greater social sustainability including intergenerational equity.

Tropical savanna woodlands are vast in global extent, providing vital habitat for large animals, stocking substantial carbon, and providing critical resources for local communities. Miombo is the world's largest savanna, covering 2.7 million km2 across southern Africa. Yet, there are no long-term ecological dynamics plots of any size in the miombo, and more broadly, only one of 71 Forest Global Earth Observatory (ForestGeo) plots is in tropical dry forest. Focusing on Zambia as the core of the miombo, this project has three CENTRAL aims. First, to establish a 36-hectare long-term forest dynamics plot in the miombo. This will meet ForestGeo standards, including mapping, identifying, measuring and tagging all trees over 1 cm in diameter at breast height (DBH), providing a critical resource for sub-Saharan African botanists and ecologists more broadly. Second, to determine how disturbance impacts the age and growth structure of miombo, testing the theory that miombo is a SUBCLIMAX habitat type. Third, to quantify the role of plant traits and environmental factors in determining the spatial structure of miombo tree communities. To deliver these aims, this project will facilitate a new international collaboration between two leading tropical ecologists: Prof. Edwards from the University of Sheffield, UK, and Prof. Harrison from World Agroforestry (ICRAF), Zambia. In doing so, this research project will deliver a fundamental advance in our understanding of how miombo plant communities function and establishes the means for the long-term monitoring of these communities to understand how they will be affected by climate change.