Turbidity currents are the volumetrically most import process for sediment transport on our planet. A single submarine flow can transport ten times the annual sediment flux from all of the world's rivers, and they form the largest sediment accumulations on Earth (submarine fans). These flows break strategically important seafloor cable networks that carry > 95% of global data traffic, including the internet and financial markets, and threaten expensive seabed infrastructure used to recover oil and gas. Ancient flows form many deepwater subsurface oil and gas reservoirs in locations worldwide. It is sobering to note quite how few direct measurements we have from submarine flows in action, which is a stark contrast to other major sediment transport processes such as rivers. Sediment concentration is the most fundamental parameter for documenting what turbidity currents are, and it has never been measured for flows that reach submarine fans. How then do we know what type of flow to model in flume tanks, or which assumptions to use to formulate numerical or analytical models? There is a compelling need to monitor flows directly if we are to make step changes in understanding. The flows evolve significantly, such that source to sink data is needed, and we need to monitor flows in different settings because their character can vary significantly. This project will coordinate and pump-prime international efforts to monitor turbidity currents in action. Work will be focussed around key 'test sites' that capture the main types of flows and triggers. The objective is to build up complete source-to-sink information at key sites, rather than producing more incomplete datasets in disparate locations. Test sites are chosen where flows are known to be active - occurring on annual or shorter time scale, where previous work provides a basis for future projects, and where there is access to suitable infrastructure (e.g. vessels). The initial test sites include turbidity current systems fed by rivers, where the river enters marine or freshwater, and where plunging ('hyperpycnal') river floods are common or absent. They also include locations that produce powerful flows that reach the deep ocean and build submarine fans. The project is novel because there has been no comparable network established for monitoring turbidity currents Numerical and laboratory modelling will also be needed to understand the significance of the field observations, and our aim is also to engage modellers in the design and analysis of monitoring datasets. This work will also help to test the validity of various types of model. We will collect sediment cores and seismic data to study the longer term evolution of systems, and the more infrequent types of flow. Understanding how deposits are linked to flows is important for outcrop and subsurface oil and gas reservoir geologists. This proposal is timely because of recent efforts to develop novel technology for monitoring flows that hold great promise. This suite of new technology is needed because turbidity currents can be extremely powerful (up to 20 m/s) and destroy sensors placed on traditional moorings on the seafloor. This includes new sensors, new ways of placing those sensors above active flows or in near-bed layers, and new ways of recovering data via autonomous gliders. Key preliminary data are lacking in some test sites, such as detailed bathymetric base-maps or seismic datasets. Our final objective is to fill in key gaps in 'site-survey' data to allow larger-scale monitoring projects to be submitted in the future. This project will add considerable value to an existing NERC Grant to monitor flows in Monterey Canyon in 2014-2017, and a NERC Industry Fellowship hosted by submarine cable operators. Talling is PI for two NERC Standard Grants, a NERC Industry Fellowship and NERC Research Programme Consortium award. He is also part of a NERC Centre, and thus fulfils all four criteria for the scheme.

Development of geological models of the sub-surface relies on the interpretation of largely remotely sensed data. We propose a program of knowledge exchange that shares existing information and trials new methods for determining the impact of human biases, anchoring and confidence, on the interpretation of data used to build geological models. From this knowledge exchange and creation we will create and promote optimal workflows for interpretation that minimize risk in the oil and gas industry from interpretational uncertainty. The geological exploration and production of hydrocarbons and the storage of CO2 in geological reservoirs requires a 3D picture to be built of the sub-surface. This picture is made up of remotely sensed information like seismic reflection data with poor resolution, and 1D point sources such as well bores which sample a relatively small amount of the sub-surface volume of interest. Work on improving interpretation of these datasets has mainly focused on technological improvements to refine the imaging and processing of the remotely sensed data to better illuminate the sub-surface architecture. But even with improved techniques interpretations of the data, and the subsequent models created are uncertain. This uncertainty equates to exploration and production risk. The risk results from the lack of constraint from the data to create a 'certain' predictive model, and is amplified by known biases that are applied during interpretation of limited datasets. This knowledge exchange proposal aims to: quantify the effect of known biases on interpretation of seismic reflection datasets and to build a workflow that minimizes biases in interpretation that industry can deploy. We will work with industry, and on industry datasets, to exchange knowledge of industry workflows and the effects of human bias between the academics and partner companies involved, as well as with MSc and PhD students. Building on this exchange we will create new knowledge through a series of experiments to investigate and quantify the influence of anchoring on interpretation. By building into the experiment release of additional data we will test how individual's deal with new information that either confirms, or is contrary, to their original interpretation; and for how long individuals remain anchored to an original prediction in the face of contradictory evidence. We will compare cohorts of individuals with staged access to different data against those with all the data at the outset. Throughout the process we will gauge an individual's perception of confidence in their interpretation through an expert elicitation process. Using this new knowledge we will quantify the impact of human biases on interpretational uncertainty and determine an optimal workflow for seismic interpretation. From our combined existing and co-generated knowledge we will create a series of products to promote this workflow, and the associated knowledge, as well as the NERC science on which they are based. These will include an online resource of digital video footage deployed through the existing Virtual Seismic Atlas, accessed by 8,000-10,000 users monthly, and a series of training packages for industry and early career scientists undertaking PhDs as part of the NERC Oil and Gas Centre for Doctoral Training.

Turbidity currents are the volumetrically most import process for sediment transport on our planet. A single submarine flow can transport ten times the annual sediment flux from all of the world's rivers, and they form the largest sediment accumulations on Earth (submarine fans). These flows break strategically important seafloor cable networks that carry > 95% of global data traffic, including the internet and financial markets, and threaten expensive seabed infrastructure used to recover oil and gas. Ancient flows form many deepwater subsurface oil and gas reservoirs in locations worldwide. It is sobering to note quite how few direct measurements we have from submarine flows in action, which is a stark contrast to other major sediment transport processes such as rivers. Sediment concentration is the most fundamental parameter for documenting what turbidity currents are, and it has never been measured for flows that reach submarine fans. How then do we know what type of flow to model in flume tanks, or which assumptions to use to formulate numerical or analytical models? There is a compelling need to monitor flows directly if we are to make step changes in understanding. The flows evolve significantly, such that source to sink data is needed, and we need to monitor flows in different settings because their character can vary significantly. This project will coordinate and pump-prime international efforts to monitor turbidity currents in action. Work will be focussed around key 'test sites' that capture the main types of flows and triggers. The objective is to build up complete source-to-sink information at key sites, rather than producing more incomplete datasets in disparate locations. Test sites are chosen where flows are known to be active - occurring on annual or shorter time scale, where previous work provides a basis for future projects, and where there is access to suitable infrastructure (e.g. vessels). The initial test sites include turbidity current systems fed by rivers, where the river enters marine or freshwater, and where plunging ('hyperpycnal') river floods are common or absent. They also include locations that produce powerful flows that reach the deep ocean and build submarine fans. The project is novel because there has been no comparable network established for monitoring turbidity currents Numerical and laboratory modelling will also be needed to understand the significance of the field observations, and our aim is also to engage modellers in the design and analysis of monitoring datasets. This work will also help to test the validity of various types of model. We will collect sediment cores and seismic data to study the longer term evolution of systems, and the more infrequent types of flow. Understanding how deposits are linked to flows is important for outcrop and subsurface oil and gas reservoir geologists. This proposal is timely because of recent efforts to develop novel technology for monitoring flows that hold great promise. This suite of new technology is needed because turbidity currents can be extremely powerful (up to 20 m/s) and destroy sensors placed on traditional moorings on the seafloor. This includes new sensors, new ways of placing those sensors above active flows or in near-bed layers, and new ways of recovering data via autonomous gliders. Key preliminary data are lacking in some test sites, such as detailed bathymetric base-maps or seismic datasets. Our final objective is to fill in key gaps in 'site-survey' data to allow larger-scale monitoring projects to be submitted in the future. This project will add considerable value to an existing NERC Grant to monitor flows in Monterey Canyon in 2014-2017, and a NERC Industry Fellowship hosted by submarine cable operators. Talling is PI for two NERC Standard Grants, a NERC Industry Fellowship and NERC Research Programme Consortium award. He is also part of a NERC Centre, and thus fulfils all four criteria for the scheme.