There is irrefutable evidence that the climate is changing. There also is strong evidence that this is largely a result of human activity, driven by our insatiable consumption of resources, growing populations, unsustainable migration patterns and rapid overdevelopment in cities that are resulting in heavy ecosystem services losses. Humankind's solutions to these problems do not always work, as many rely upon quantities of resources that simply do not exist or that could not support the rate of change that we are facing, behaviour changes that sit uneasily with our current consumption patterns and quality of life aspirations, and government policies that emphasise long-term sustainable gain but potential short-term economic loss for businesses and local people. A radical revisioning of the problem is needed, not only to reverse current trends, but also to contribute positively to the sustainability and wellbeing of the planet, now and in the future. This proposal is that radical new vision, adopting a 'whole of government' focus to the changes needed in the ways that societies live, work, play and consume, balancing social aspirations against the necessary changes, and using CO2 emissions as a proxy measurement for the harm being done to the planet and the resources (particularly energy) that we use. Through the development of a city analysis methodology; engineering design criteria for quality of life and wellbeing; engineering design criteria for low carbon pathways and; radical engineering approaches, strategies and visioning-all generated in a multidisciplinary context-we aim to deliver a range of engineering solutions that are effective in sustaining civilised life, in an affordable and socially acceptable style. Our vision is to transform the engineering of cities to deliver societal and planetary wellbeing within the context of low carbon living and resource security. We seek to prove that an alternative future with drastically reduced CO2 emissions is achievable in a socially acceptable manner, and to develop realistic and radical engineering solutions to achieve it. Certain techno-fixes for a low-carbon society have been known for some time (e.g., installing low energy appliances in homes), but are not always deemed successful, in part because they have not been deemed socially acceptable. Current aspirations for material consumption are driven by social factors and reinforced by social norms, yet recent research shows that meeting these aspirations often does not enhance wellbeing. Thus, the challenge the research community faces is to co-evolve the techno-fixes with people's aspirations, incorporating radical engineering strategies within the financial, policy/regulation and technical contexts, to re-define an alternative future. A roadmap is required to chart the path from here to there, identify potential tipping points and determine how to integrate radical engineering strategies into norms. However, this roadmap can only be considered once that alternative future has been established, and a 'back-casting' exercise carried out, to explore where the major barriers to change lie and where interventions are needed. Our ambition is to create an holistic, integrated, truly multidisciplinary city analysis methodology that uniquely combines engineered solutions and quality-of-life indicators, accounts for social aspirations, is founded on an evidence base of trials of radical interventions in cities, and delivers the radical engineering solutions necessary to achieve our vision. We seek to achieve this ambition by using a variety of innovative and traditional approaches and methods to undertake five research challenges, which are outlined in detail in five technical annexes.

The UK's carbon targets, as defined by the Climate Change Act of 2008, specify an emissions reduction of 80% by 2050, which the government has recently revised down to 'net zero' for the same year. In 2017, 17% of the UK's carbon emissions were associated with non-electric use in the residential sector (64.1 Mt CO2), the majority of which were associated with natural gas space heating, cooking and domestic hot water. The UK must therefore decarbonise residential heat to be able to meet its climate change targets, but, in combination with electric vehicles (EVs), this could lead to a 200-300% increase in the UK's annual electricity demand. In terms of deployment at scale, Air Source Heat Pumps (ASHP) operating either in isolation or as a hybrid gas system appear a key technology as they are not site specific and are applicable to both new build housing and retrofit. The UK's low voltage (LV) electricity network will not however, be able to operate with unconstrained electrical heating or EV charging loads. Both loads must be deferrable or scheduled in a manner to support the electricity network and maintain substations and feeders within limits. Household electric heating has the potential to operate as a significant deferrable load which LATENT is seeking to understand and harness. This can provide benefits across scales, namely to the UK (energy security and carbon targets), DNO (Distributed Network Operator as grid support), heat pump suppliers (by demonstrating added grid value), householders (in terms of bill reduction and avoidance of peaking dynamic tariffs) and electricity suppliers by applying aggregation techniques to minimise energy service costs. The key aim of LATENT therefore, is to be able to predict the impact of customers with electrical heating (predominantly ASHP) operating with 3rd party deferrable heating control on the LV network at the feeder / substation level. 3rd party control in this context would be through the energy service supplier, with whom, unlike the DNO, a household has an existing financial contract relationship. LATENT will inform industry of the potential of 3rd party control of deferrable heat through a rigorous field experiment, and, in doing so, accelerate the transition to decarbonised household heating. LATENT will determine the influence of householder personality trait (OCEAN traits: either positive / negative as Openness, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, Neuroticism) alongside more traditional Census metrics such as educational attainment, house type etc to deliver a multi-variate regression model to describe deferrable heat reduction at the household level. A substation or feeder can then be analysed in terms of its household type mix (10% C+ detached, 30% E- flat etc) to produce a composite substation level, deferrable heat reduction estimate. This model will be realised through field trials with LATENT's industrial partner, Igloo Energy. Igloo have a customer base with smart heating systems and ASHP which support remote 3rd party control. LATENT will test (i) householder's stated acceptance to deferral of heating (in terms of temperature drop and duration) through focus groups and surveys, (ii) actual acceptance of heat deferral through heating season field trials, and (iii) operation of a commercial deferrable heat tariff with a sample of Igloo's customer base.

The National Grid has identified periods of high electricity demand combined with low wind and sun as a key challenge for supply-demand balancing in Great Britain as it transitions to clean, but intermittent renewable power generation. This was evident in Autumn 2021, when a three week period of low wind coincided with a fourfold increase in imported wholesale gas prices, caused by high global gas demand. Consequently, over twenty energy suppliers ceased trading, and energy prices increased, leading to rising fuel poverty. Wind will remain the primary source of renewable power in the UK, but its intermittency means that similar 'wind-droughts' to that seen in 2021 will occur again in the future. Energy systems must be resilient to weather to address the 'trilemma' of generating clean, affordable, secure energy. This research investigates the roles of tidal stream, tidal range and wave energy in overcoming energy security challenges. Energy security is defined as 'the uninterrupted process of securing the amount of energy that is needed to sustain people's lives and daily activities while ensuring its affordability'. MOSAIC builds on recent research that has started to show how tidal stream, tidal range and wave power generation can lead to energy security benefits. Latest estimates indicate that the combined tidal stream, tidal range and wave energy resources around Great Britain can contribute 45% of the UK's current electricity demand. The timing of tidal stream/range power is independent of weather patterns, and instead depends on the positions of the sun, earth and moon, and the rotation of the earth. This characteristic of tidal power means that it can provide reliable electricity supply every day, and that the amount of tidal power generated at any time in the future can be predicted. Co-locating tidal stream and tidal range power plants can lead to a smoothing of the combined power supply, because the two technologies tend to generate power at different times of the tide. Wave power lags wind power to help provide a more stable overall renewable supply. The predictable, reliable, smoothed power generation provided by adopting tidal and wave energy enhances balancing between power supply and demand, reducing the need for costly imported power, energy storage and grid upgrades, for example. The aim of the research is to establish and optimise the contributions of tidal stream, tidal range and wave energy future energy systems to enhance energy security. This will be achieved by building new computer models that simulate the flow of power between components on the national and local electricity grids. The models will be able to optimise the amount of power provided by all generation technologies, including tidal and wave energy, in order to provide energy security. The project will deliver a roadmap that sets out the amount, locations and cost of new tidal/wave energy projects to deliver energy security enhancements between 2035-50. The roadmap will be informed by novel energy system modelling outputs at three different scales based on the energy systems of Great Britain, Wales and the Isle of Wight. The incorporation of three different scales allows the energy system models to simulate and optimise the transmission and distribution grids as well of power generation and energy storage. This novel approach is critical to fully understand the compatibility of different technologies. Results from the research will be communicated to UK Government, the National Grid and the Isle of Wight Council, to inform the design of future energy systems. The models will be freely available for anyone to use. This provides opportunities to establish the suitability of energy system models currently being used to design energy systems, which may over-simplify the simulation and optimisation of tidal stream/range and wave power.