LoHCool focuses on topic T1 'Delivering economic and energy-efficient heating and cooling to city areas of different population densities and climates'. It confronts directly the conundrum of offering greater winter and summer comfort in a Continental climate zone whilst mitigating what would be a carbon penalty of prodigious proportions. It concentrates on recovering value from the existing building stock, some 3.4 Billion m2 in which dwell and work some 550 Million citizens. It is highly cross-disciplinary involving engineers, building scientists, atmospheric scientists, architects and behavioural researchers in China and UK measuring real performance in new and particularly in existing buildings in Chinese cities to investigate the use of passive and active systems within integrated design and re-engineering. It focuses on the very challenging dynamic within China's Hot Summer/Cold Winter HSCW climate zone. It aims to enable the much desired improvements in living conditions and comfort levels within buildings through developing a keen understanding of the current heating and cooling technologies and practices in buildings by monitoring, surveying and measuring people's comfort and capturing this understanding through developing systems modelling including energy simulations. It will borrow on UK research for comparative purposes, for example work examining the current and future environmental conditions within the whole National Health Service (NHS) Hospital Estate in England and the practical economic opportunities, very considerable, for significant improvement whilst saving carbon at the rate required by ambitious NHS targets. It will propose detailed practical and economic low and very low carbon options for re-engineering the dominant building types which we will identify in a series of cities, as developed with local stakeholders, contractors and building professionals, exploring economic and energy-efficient low carbon district heating and cooling systems. Finally, it will test them in the current climate, 'current' extreme events, future climates and will estimate the carbon implications and cost of widespread implementation. Findings for the existing stock will be equally applicable to new-build, in many ways a simpler prospect.

Energy systems are vitally important to the future of UK industry and society. However, the energy trilemma presents many complex interconnected challenges. Current integrated energy systems modelling and simulation techniques suffer from a series of shortcomings that undermine their ability to develop and inform improved policy and planning decisions, therefore preventing the UK realising huge potential benefits. The current approach is characterised by high level static models which produce answers or predictions that are highly subject to a set of critical simplifying assumptions and therefore cannot be relied upon with a high degree of confidence. They are unable to provide sufficiently accurate or detailed, integrated representations of the physics, engineering, social, spatial temporal or stochastic aspects of real energy systems. They also struggle to generate robust long term plans in the face of uncertainties in commercial and technological developments and the effects of climate change, behavioural dynamics and technological interdependencies. The aim of the Centre for Energy Systems Integration (CESI) is to address this weakness and reduce the risks associated with securing and delivering a fully integrated future energy system for the UK. This will be achieved through the development of a radically different, holistic modelling, simulation and optimisation methodology which makes use of existing high level tools from academic, industry and government networks and couples them with detailed models validated using full scale multi vector demonstration systems. CESI will carry out uncertainty quantification to identify the robust messages which the models are providing about the real world, and to identify where effort on improving models should be focused in order to maximise learning about the real world. This approach, and the associated models and data, will be made available to the energy community and will provide a rigorous underpinning for current integrated energy systems research, so that future energy system planning and policy formulation can be carried out with a greater degree of confidence than is currently possible. CESI is a unique partnership of five research intensive universities and underpinning strategic partner Siemens (contribution value of £7.1m to the centre) The Universities of Newcastle, Durham, Edinburgh, Heriot-Watt and Sussex have a combined RCUK energy portfolio worth over £100m. The centre will have a physical base as Newcastle University which will release space for the centre in the new £60m Urban Sciences Building. This building will contain world-class facilities from which to lead international research into digitally enabled urban sustainability and will also be physically connected to a full scale instrumented multi vector energy system. The building will feature an Urban Observatory, which will collect a diverse set of data from across the city, and a 3D Decision Theatre which will enable real-time data to be analysed, explored and the enable the testing of hypotheses. The main aim of CESI's work is to develop a modular 'plug-n-play' environment in which components of the energy system can be co-simulated and optimised in detail. With no technology considered in isolation, considering sectors as an interlinked whole, the interactions and rebound effects across technologies and users can be examined. The methodology proposed is a system architect concept underpinned by a twin track approach of detailed multi-vector, integrated simulation and optimisation at various scales incorporating uncertainty, coupled with large scale demonstration and experimental facilities in order to test, validate and evaluate solutions and scenarios. A System Architect takes a fully integrated, balanced, long term, transparent approach to energy system planning unfettered by silos and short term thinking.

National infrastructure provides essential services to a modern economy: energy, transport, digital communications, water supply, flood protection, and waste water / solid waste collection, treatment and disposal. The OECD estimates that globally US$53 trillion of infrastructure investment will be needed by 2030. The UK's National Infrastructure Plan set out over £460 billion of investment in the next decade, but is not yet known what effect that investment will have on the quality and reliability of national infrastructure services, the size of the economy, the resilience of society or its impacts upon the environment. Such a gap in knowledge exists because of the sheer complexity of infrastructure networks and their interactions with people and the environment. That means that there is too much guesswork, and too many untested assumptions in the planning, appraisal and design of infrastructure, from European energy networks to local drainage systems. Our vision is for infrastructure decisions to be guided by systems analysis. When this vision is realised, decision makers will have access to, and visualisation of, information that tells them how all infrastructure systems are performing. They will have models that help to pinpoint vulnerabilities and quantify the risks of failure. They will be able to perform 'what-if' analysis of proposed investments and explore the effects of future uncertainties, such as population growth, new technologies and climate change. The UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC) is a consortium of seven UK universities, led by the University of Oxford, which has developed unique capability in infrastructure systems analysis, modelling and decision making. Thanks to an EPSRC Programme Grant (2011-2015) the ITRC has developed and demonstrated the world's first family of national infrastructure system models (NISMOD) for analysis and long-term planning of interdependent infrastructure systems. The research is already being used by utility companies, engineering consultants, the Institution of Civil Engineers and many parts of the UK government, to analyse risks and inform billions of pounds worth of better infrastructure decisions. Infrastructure UK is now using NISMOD to analyse the National Infrastructure Plan. The aim of MISTRAL is to develop and demonstrate a highly integrated analytics capability to inform strategic infrastructure decision making across scales, from local to global. MISTRAL will thereby radically extend infrastructure systems analysis capability: - Downscale: from ITRC's pioneering representation of national networks to the UK's 25.7 million households and 5.2 million businesses, representing the infrastructure services they demand and the multi-scale networks through which these services are delivered. - Upscale: from the national perspective to incorporate global interconnections via telecommunications, transport and energy networks. - Across-scale: to other national settings outside the UK, where infrastructure needs are greatest and where systems analysis represents a huge business opportunity for UK engineering firms. These research challenges urgently need to be tackled because infrastructure systems are interconnected across scales and prolific technological innovation is now occurring that will exploit, or may threaten, that interconnectedness. MISTRAL will push the frontiers of system research in order to quantify these opportunities and risks, providing the evidence needed to plan, invest in and design modern, sustainable and resilient infrastructure services. Five years ago, proposing theory, methodology and network models that stretched from the household to the globe, and from the UK to different national contexts would not have been credible. Now the opportunity for multi-scale modelling is coming into sight, and ITRC, perhaps uniquely, has the capacity and ambition to take on that challenge in the MISTRAL programme.

The proposed research will develop a novel experimental and modelling study for the computation of urban albedo in high latitude locations, using London as a representative urban environment in the UK. This work is primarily motivated by the need to provide accurate albedo estimates for urban configurations, as such calculations are lacking in most Urban Heat Island (UHI) models used to mitigate its effects. The research will investigate the seasonal effects of albedo on urban temperature. Albedo intervention can bring substantial positive effects during the summer while marginal negative effects are expected in winter. In mild climates such a negative effect might out-weigh summer benefits. It is possible that seasonal intervention on the urban fabric could give an overall positive impact but for this, accurate computation of urban albedo is required at urban design or intervention stage. These issues will be investigated in the proposed study which has three aims; (a) to investigate experimentally the impact of urban fabric on urban albedo; (b) to develop a catalogue of urban albedo for various material and geometrical combinations and (c) to develop an empirical model to predict changes in urban albedo in relation to changes in urban fabric and solar altitude with a specific focus on advanced materials. This aim will be achieved through an extensive experimental study that includes field and laboratory scale measurements, computer modelling, and followed by the development of an urban albedo calculator that is able to explore seasonal variations. The Urban Albedo Calculator values could be used to predict the urban heat island with greater confidence.