There is a large and convincing body of epidemiological evidence linking short term exposure to outdoor air pollutants to adverse health effects. However, most of this evidence is derived from studies that have linked single pollutants to health in urban environments. There is increasing recognition that greater protection against the adverse health effects of air pollution could be achieved by focusing research and policy not on individual pollutants, but by a multi-pollutant approach. Furthermore, the spatial variation in pollutant concentrations and their health impacts, especially in rural areas and areas outside the larger cities where much of the UK population reside, are not-well established. Socio-economic impacts (and related issues of environmental justice) and other geographically-determined factors, including housing characteristics (indoor pollution), are also potential modifiers of exposure to outdoor air pollution. The increasing complexity of the scientific inquiry is matched by the difficulties of formulating, proving and implementing appropriate regulatory policy. This proposal builds upon an existing collaboration between researchers in the environmental and health disciplines, with the addition of investigators and practitioners from the policy and social science fields. Our proposal aims to provide new epidemiological evidence on the health impacts of exposure to multiple pollutants; to examine the implications of such evidence for regulation and control of air quality; and to assess how uncertainties in evidence affect its translation into actionable evidence-based policies and the evaluation of their costs and benefits. There are several unique innovations in our study: 1) the development of long series of high resolution (5 km) datasets for daily concentrations of a range of pollutants and weather data, linked to geo-referenced health data including daily mortality, hospital admissions and data on heart attacks; 2) an examination of the contribution of the indoor environment as a modifier of exposure to outdoor pollutants to provide an integrated assessment of the risks to health of short term exposure to air pollution; 3) an integrated assessment of the health effects of various near-term future air quality and climate policies in 2030 as well as selected emissions reduction policies for the UK; 4) the development of a 'decision analysis' tool that includes assessment of uncertainties and can be used to infer the likely outcomes of these various policy choices.

Electricity can be generated through the conversion of the kinetic energy that resides in tidal currents in a similar way to a wind turbine. The ubiquitous nature of tidal energy, and the predictability and reliability of tidal currents, gives tidal-stream energy distinct advantages compared to other renewable energy technologies. Individual tidal energy devices have been installed and proven, with commercial arrays planned throughout the world. Yet, the true global resource and ocean conditions are broadly unknown, affecting optimal global device design. Present methods are unsuitable as the industry matures beyond the fast, shallow, well-mixed, and wave sheltered "demonstration" sites - influencing investor confidence. Transformative understanding of this sustainable natural resource for the coming century is therefore needed to bring a step change towards a sustainable, high-tech and globally exportable, UK renewable energy industry. CHALLENGE 1: How much tidal energy is there in the world and how is it distributed? OBJECTIVE 1: Resolve the true tidal-stream energy resource using unique datasets, consistent modelling framework, and state-of-the-art modelling techniques. Global tidal resource assessments are based on coarse, data constrained, models that are not validated for the few tidal energy sites resolved, as developed for other applications (e.g. global energy budgets); therefore, the global tidal energy resource is only broadly known. Fine-scale bathymetric constrictions (e.g. coral reef passes), biological communities (e.g. flow diverted around kelp beds) and ocean currents, can all accelerate currents between constrictions; meaning many sites initially dismissed as commercially unviable may actually be suitable. A consistent modelling framework (e.g. resolution and physics), and comparison of modelling techniques, will be developed to reduce bias and determine the potential global resource. CHALLENGE 2: How do conditions vary globally and will this change in the coming century? OBJECTIVE 2: Realistic oceanographic conditions at potential tidal-stream energy sites for the coming century will be determined For sustainable device design, realistic oceanographic conditions must be characterised for the lifetime of deployments, and cascaded through high-fidelity device-scale models (e.g. CFD); yet oceanographic conditions, and the impact of climate change, at tidal energy sites is largely unknown. Previously unviable tidal energy regions may become economically viable in the future (as near-resonant tidal systems and their associated currents are sensitive to sea-level rise), and, due to wave-tide interaction processes, oceanographic conditions at tidal energy sites may change. Dynamically coupled wave-tide ocean-scale models will be developed to inform the developing industry (e.g. optimal and resilient design), with new techniques that can simulate the interaction between the resource and devices. CHALLENGE 3: Are current methods of suitable as the industry develops? OBJECTIVE 3: Improved methods of device behaviour in resource and environmental assessment models The industry is evolving beyond fast, shallow, well-mixed and wave sheltered sites, to areas of the world with complex oceanographic conditions (e.g. ocean currents and swell wave dominated climates). New approaches are needed to understand the interactions between devices, resource and environment. Device-scale interaction studies assume well-mixed (i.e. homogenous) channelized flows, with tidal turbine loading from waves assessed assuming waves travel in-line with tidal currents (waves following or opposing current), which is not the case beyond an extremely limited number of tidal straits (e.g. Pentland Firth). Furthermore, device interaction with the flow must also be resolved within resource assessment, beyond simplified momentum sink terms. Device behaviour and interactions will improved at both ocean and device scales.

The Arctic region is undergoing dramatic changes, in the atmosphere, ocean, ice and on land. The Arctic lower atmosphere is warming at more than twice the rate of the global average, the Arctic sea ice and Greenland Ice Sheet melt have accelerated in the past 30 years. Notable observed changes in the ocean include the freshening of the Beaufort Gyre, and 'Atlantification' of the Barents Sea and of the Eastern Arctic Ocean. Such profound environmental change is likely to have implications across the globe - it is often said, "What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic". Past work has indicated that Arctic amplification can, in principle, affect European climate and extreme weather, but a clear picture of how and why is currently lacking. The 2019 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Oceans and Cryosphere concluded "changes in Arctic sea ice have the potential to influence midlatitude weather, but there is low confidence in the detection of this influence for specific weather types". ArctiCONNECT brings together experts in climate dynamics, polar and subpolar oceanography, and extreme weather, in order to transform understanding of the effects of accelerating Arctic warming on European climate and extreme weather, through an innovative and integrative program of research bridging theory, models of varying complexity, and observations. It will (i) uncover the atmospheric and oceanic mechanisms of Arctic influence on Europe; (ii) determine the ability of state-of-the-art climate models to simulate realistic Arctic-to-Europe teleconnections; and (iii) quantify and understand the contribution of Arctic warming to projected changes in European weather extremes and to the hazards posed to society.

Beijing suffers from very high concentrations of airborne pollutants, leading to adverse health and wellbeing for over twenty million people. The pollutants likely to have the greatest effects upon human health are particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide and ozone. Both particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide are emitted directly from individual sources (primary contributions, many of which are not well quantified); and are formed in the atmosphere (secondary contributions, which are highly complex). Ozone is entirely secondary in nature, formed from reactions of precursor gases, whose sources and abundance are also challenging to constrain. These uncertainties hinder understanding of the causes of air pollution in Beijing, which is needed to deliver effective and efficient strategies for pollution reduction and health improvement. AIRPOLL-Beijing project will address this challenge, through identification and quantification of the sources and emissions of air pollutants in Beijing. The project sits within the NERC/MRC-NSFC China megacity programme, which includes projects addressing the atmospheric processes affecting air pollutants, human exposure and health effects, and solutions / mitigation strategies to reduce air pollution and health impacts. The project exploits the combined experience and expertise of leading UK and Chinese scientists, applying multiple complementary approaches. The project deploys multiple atmospheric measurement and analysis strategies to characterise pollutant abundance and sources, develop novel emissions inventories, and integrate these to produce new modelling tools for use in policy development. We adopt a range of state-of-the-science approaches: -Receptor Modelling, where detailed composition measurements are used to infer pollutant sources from their chemical signatures, combining world-leading UK and Chinese capability. -Flux Measurements, where the total release of pollutants from all sources is measured, providing a key metric to refine emission inventories. We will combine near-ground measurements (using the unique Institute of Atmospheric Physics 325m tower in central Beijing), ground-based observations and fluxes derived from satellite observations. -3D spatial analysis, in which a novel sensor network will be deployed around central Beijing to measure pollutant fields. -Development of novel emissions inventories, which will predict the temporally- and spatially- resolved emissions of air pollutants from all sources, enhancing existing capability. -Development of new online modelling tools, within which to integrate emissions, atmospheric processing and meteorology to predict primary and secondary pollutant concentration fields. AIRPOLL-Beijing will integrate these approaches to provide thorough understanding of the sources and emissions of air pollutants in Beijing, at unprecedented detail and accuracy. While the project is a self-contained activity, key deliverables feed into Processes, Health and Solutions themes of the programme. This proposal seeks Newton fund support, part of the UK's Official Development Assistance (ODA) commitment. The project will directly address ODA objectives, in the categories of (i) people (through the joint development of novel scientific approaches to the understanding of megacity air pollution), (ii) programmes (as all aspects of the project are joint UK-Chinese research endeavours) and (iii) translation (through provision of detailed air pollution source assessments, in support of assessment of health impacts and development of mitigation strategies). More generally, the project will leave a legacy of improved air pollution understanding and research capacity of the Chinese teams, and, through integration with other themes of the Megacities programme, underpin improvements in the health and welfare of the population of Beijing, and across China more widely - ultimately benefitting more than a billion people.

The primary responsibility for preparing for, and reacting to, major emergency situations in England rests with local emergency responders who act individually or collectively through Local Resilience Forums (LRFs, Defra 2013). ResilienceDirect was set up by Cabinet Office in 2014 to facilitate data sharing amongst LRFs for emergency response and planning. Nationwide fluvial, coastal, and surface water flood risk mapping by the Environment Agency provides information about potential areas at risk. However, emergency services (e.g. Fire & Rescue; Ambulance) face the challenge of responding to flood emergencies under fast changing and dynamic weather conditions. Surface water flood risk maps based on return period are useful for planning purposes. However their utility in flood emergencies is often limited due to the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of rainfall. This project aims to translate the recent development in high-resolution surface water flood modelling and numerical weather forecast into a real-time street-level surface water flood mapping service within the ResilienceDirect platform. In addition to surface water mapping, this project will also produce accessibility maps in real-time to assist the decision making of emergency responders. This will allow accessibility (e.g. time to travel) from individual emergency service stations (e.g. Fire & Rescue; Ambulance) to vulnerable places to be evaluated. The mapping results will help contingency planning by emergency responders ahead of potential flood events. Central support from Cabinet Office, the Department for Communities and Local Governments, Met Office and Environment Agency will ensure the wider impact of this project. The project will be demonstrated in Leicestershire, coordinated by the Leicester, Leicestershire and Rutland Resilience Forum and the 16 stakeholders it represents. Atkins will support applicability and link the project with three strands of activities in the company: surface water modelling, transportation modelling and resilience/ emergency mapping. Atkins will also help explore potential commercial applications of the project outcomes. Transport Scotland will support the project with knowledge of potential vulnerable areas (PVA) on the trunk road network in Scotland, aligned with known locations of flooding within their asset management system; Transport Scotland will help identify scope for expanding the service in Scotland beyond emergency responders, for utilisation on a national road infrastructure network, within the operations of Traffic Scotland.