The nature of science is changing, particularly in its relationship to decision-making and policy formulation. In essence, science is becoming more complex with questions becoming broader in scope and with the consequent need to span disciplines and achieve integration between scientific disciplines and socio-economic concerns. Given this complexity, levels of uncertainty are increasing and there is a need to make decisions in the face of such uncertainties. In addition, we are seeing that the stakes are high in scientific discourse and there is an urgency associated with decision-making. Many observers refer to this as a period of post-normal science but, whatever terminology one adopts, it is clear that we need new tools to support science and decision-making given this complexity, uncertainty, importance and urgency. These statements apply strongly to the environmental sciences and in particular to issues related to biodiversity and its relationships with economics and society. The Dasgupta Review highlights the criticality of nature for our economies, livelihoods and wellbeing, our failures in managing nature to date and the huge risks associated with this. Crucially, it calls for transformative change in the way we think, act and measure success, seeing our economies as fundamentally embedded and interlinked with nature. This resonates with statements from the post-normal science literature calling for a fundamental rethink about the approaches and tools we use for decision-making related to science. In response to these challenges, we will deliver a transformative approach to embedding biodiversity values in decision-making by integrating novel perspectives around the economics of biodiversity with virtual labs (collaborative, cloud-based environments supporting transparent science). As a starting point, we will build a comprehensive evidence base to support economics of biodiversity decision-making within virtual labs, thus: i) facilitating the necessary integration of data and analyses around biodiversity and its economic and non-monetary benefits, values and costs; ii) promoting an approach that is collaborative and open, both critical components in supporting the necessary dialogue between disciplinary experts and stakeholders, and supporting collective reasoning around uncertainties. We will extend virtual labs by adding trustworthy and accountable decision-making capability, through decision-support frameworks. These frameworks will be informed by a systems thinking approach, building on the integration offered by virtual labs, and promoting an understanding of interactions and feedback. This will enable deeper analyses of co- or incidental benefits or other synergies associated with biodiversity and socio-economic activity, which we see as crucial in supporting improved decision-making in this area. The work will be evaluated through two complementary case studies, investigating co-benefits between: i) biodiversity and renewable energy in the planning and operation of solar parks; ii) biodiversity and agricultural production in land use decision-making. Note that we seek a flexible approach to the design of decision-support frameworks, where they can be specialised for different contexts and scales with commonalities and variabilities emerging from the case studies. The research is fundamentally transdisciplinary in nature and we have a consortium with internationally leading expertise in science, data science and social science (see Part I). We adopt an agile approach to the research, an approach that can achieve the necessary cross-disciplinary dialogue, as well as enabling tighter integration of stakeholders in the co-design of solutions. We have a rich set of project partners supporting this process, and have already engaged with our partners in co-design activities in preparation for this proposal.

Oilseed rape (OSR) crops in the UK are threatened by two main fungal diseases: light leaf spot (LLS) caused by Pyrenopeziza brassicae (lineage 1) and Phoma caused by Plenodomus lingam / Plenodomus biglobosus. In the UK, Phoma and LLS each cause >£100M in crop losses despite costly fungicide applications (primarily DeMethylation Inhibitors (DMIs)). New variants and fungicide resistant strains of these pathogens have been reported recently from other geographic regions and may threaten UK OSR crops should they emerge there. The first P. brassicae risk relates to decreased fungicide sensitivity, where DMI resistance was found in European P. brassicae populations including the UK. Decreased DMI sensitivity is mediated by alterations in the CYP51 gene, including point mutations in the coding region (G460S or S508T) and inserts in the upstream control (promoter) region. Fungal isolates from Ireland with a G460S+S508T genotype had a much reduced DMI sensitivity. Therefore, work is required to monitor for changes in the fungicide sensitivity status of UK P. brassicae populations and screen for the G460S+S508T genotype. An additional risk from P. brassicae has recently identified a lineage 2 variant responsible for chlorotic leaf spot outbreaks in the US Pacific northwest. There lineage 2 appears to be a recent introduction that has undergone rapid invasive spread. This damaging variant now threatens adjacent Canadian OSR production and could affect European OSR production, particularly given the unknown implications of lineages 1 and 2 coming into contact and increasing use of brassica cover crop seed produced in the US Pacific northwest. Research is thus required to monitor the lineages currently present in UK pathogen populations. For Phoma, one threat to UK OSR comes from fungicide resistant P. lingam / P. biglobosus. Until 2015, in vitro testing had shown both pathogens to be sensitive to DMIs. However, recent work has shown DMI resistance in 15-24% of the P. lingam population in Australia and the Czech Republic. Such resistance is associated with inserts in the CYP51 promoter region. Whether DMI resistance has also emerged in P. lingam, and also P. biglobosus, pathogen populations in the UK requires investigation. A further Phoma threat relates to the recent discovery in Europe of the P. biglobosus 'canadensis' subclade. Prior to this only the P. biglobosus 'brassicae' subclade had been reported in Europe. There is increasing evidence that the P. biglobosus subclade variants pose different risks to OSR health, that may require distinct disease management strategies. Data is thus required on the pathogen population structure of subclades present in the UK OSR crops. In the proposed project, we will work with our collaborator, BASF who will collect OSR leaves from field trials showing Phoma (Jan 23) and LLS (Mar 23) symptoms. At least ten trials will be sampled from the UK and potentially some additional EU locations. Samples will be sent to RRes for fungal isolation, with the aim of collecting 50-100 isolates each of P. brassicae, P. lingam, and P. biglobosus . These isolates will be deposited into the RRes and OREGIN culture collections. Isolate DNA will be extracted, and P. brassicae strains lineage typed via lineage-specific amplification. Plenodomus isolates will be typed using species-specific DNA primers specific for P. lingam / P. biglobosus. For P. biglobosus isolates, the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region will be sequenced to determine subclade (subgroup) identities. Isolates of all three species will be screened in vitro for sensitivity to fungicides, including DMIs (prothioconazole-desthio, mefentrifluconazole) and a QoI (pyraclostrobin), and for the least DMI sensitive isolates, CYP51 will be examined molecularly to explore possible resistance mechanisms.

Oilseed rape, grown for the production of edible vegetable oil, biodiesel and animal feed, was until recently the UK's third most valuable crop and its principal oil crop. However, pressure from the crop pest, cabbage flea stem beetle (CSFB), has resulted in large losses in yield and profits. Furthermore, as a consequence of the war in the Ukraine, imports of edible oils from the Ukraine and Russia (the world's two biggest exporters) are at an all-time low (https://www.economist.com/business/2022/05/07/the-war-in-ukraine-is-rocking-the-market-for-edible-oils). Thus, it has never been more timely to begin measures to restore yields of oilseed rape crops in the UK. This proposal focuses on mitigating the damaging effects of the CSFB by developing a model to predict the occurrence and abundance of the pest so that prevention measures can be taken to protect the crop when it is most vulnerable. The CSFB has several life stages, e.g. egg, larvae, pupae, adult, which affect the crop in different ways. For example, the adults eat the newly planted crops in Autumn, whereas larvae burrow into the leaf stems causing damage to plants over winter and into the following spring. Furthermore, the timing of the life stages depends on local weather conditions. Air temperature is known to affect the developmental rates - e.g. the time taken for the eggs to hatch, the larvae to mature to adulthood etc, and wind speed and temperature affect the ability of the adults to migrate to new crops. Our model is process-based, meaning that when we run the model it steps forward through time and tells us the current life stage and abundance of the pest at every moment in time. Currently we only have a simple prototype model of the CSFB life cycle which does not contain information on how local weather affects the pest phenology. One aspect of this proposal is to code weather dependency into the model so that we can predict year-to-year variability and the effects of climate change on pest damage to oilseed rape. Another aspect of the proposal is collating all data currently available for CSFB and using this for building or validating our new model. The long-term aim is that our model will be developed into a decision support system (DSS) that can be used by farmers and agronomists for crop management. To this end, knowledge transfer is a key component of our project. A stakeholder group will be formed and will meet at least twice during the lifetime of the project; once at the start of the project and once in the second half of the project. The stakeholder group will be made up of representatives from the industry partners, BASF and Frontier and other interested parties. These stakeholders represent important industry actors that are influential in the development and use of DSS for pest management. The initial workshop will enable stakeholders to influence the design of the model from an early stage; the second workshop will allow stakeholders to trial the model in its development and hence inform on how the model can be further developed be applicable in real situations. Via ADAS, the model will be socialised with growers and advisors attending ADAS Farming Association conferences. There are several ADAS Farming Associations across England, and their membership consists of local farmers and agronomists. As such, these events represent an ideal opportunity to receive feedback from those tackling the issue of CSFB first-hand. Thus, this proposal combines industry partners (BASF and Frontier), biologists with knowledge of CSFB and its chemical and non-chemical control (HAU and ADAS) along with mathematical modellers and statisticians (BioSS) to provide a fully inter-disciplinary approach to restoring yields of oilseed rape through mitigation of the CSFB.