It is difficult to think of any aspect of everyday life which does not rely in some way on energy supply and use. Behind every energy source is a complex network of stakeholders ensuring a reliable supply from generation through to distribution and use. In recent years, there has been an increasing focus on low carbon energy & renewables and also increasing marketisation, reorganisation and privatisation in the sector, particularly with large utilities.Time series analysis is a statistical cornerstone, of vital importance to many energy related challenges. For example, short-term wind speed forecasting is key for utilities aggregating many sources of supply, as is predicting the future energy use of groups of customers. Time series analysis is also critical to the planning of proposed wind farms to see if the predicted wind power is likely to be efficient and reliable. Over the last decade, the nature of time series encountered by stakeholders has changed. In the past, series were assumed to be stationary (i.e. that their statistical properties did not change over time). Much of what is now experienced is non-stationary. This becomes ever clearer as increasing flows of high-quality data enable new models to be proposed, studied and considered.Compare, for example, wind and gas-fired power. Wind is intermittent and not controllable. Gas powered stations, by comparison, are highly controllable and can produce almost constant power. Incorporating large quantities of wind power into the grid can be problematic as there can be sustained periods without wind, or periods of highly variable wind. Another issue is increasing marketisation: across Europe people are now able to purchase power from a variety of suppliers and modes of supply, distributors supply to different, fragmented parts of the market. Consequently, data collected on consumers or generators is less stable and much less stationary than in previous years.Our proposal addresses this new world of non-stationarity head-on. For several years our team has been at the forefront of developments in non-stationary time series: introducing new classes and using them in new and innovative ways. Our proposal will develop novel techniques to revolutionize the way that such time series are analyzed and hence be of considerable use to our industrial partners and the energy industry more widely. For example, we shall investigate and develop new methods for (i) handling more than one non-stationary series simultaneously; (ii) identifying appropriate sampling rates for series and whether any series have been compromised by inappropriate sampling rates; (iii) dealing with the common problem of data dropouts and irregularly spaced time series but still obtain meaningful insights; (iv) improved methods for forecasting and enabling predictions of one time series from another; (v) improving robust measures of uncertainty of our estimates. Even small improvements in any of these quantitative areas can lead to massive financial, environmental and reliability benefits of value to our partners and society more generally. We intend to create a step-change in the methods and procedures used by energy stakeholders by moving to the non-stationary world.

This project focuses on energy and more specifically on nuclear fission. Core material such as fuel assemblies are exposed to irradiation from the moment a nuclear reactor is switched on. The bombardment of material with neutrons creates collision cascades that immediately produce point defects and dislocations in the material. This results in very significant changes of the material properties compared to non-irradiated material.Nuclear fuel for light water reactors is contained by so-called cladding tubes, which are made from zirconium alloys because of their excellent corrosion resistance, sufficient mechanical properties and their low neutron absorption coefficient. Nuclear fuel is enriched initially with 5% 235U. However, the fuel cannot be fully burned due to the uncertainty of clad material degradation and dimensional instability of fuel assemblies. The dimensional instabilities are related to irradiation growth and creep of zirconium alloys. Irradiation growth occurs in zirconium alloys without applying any external load and is due to the hexagonal close packed crystal structure of zirconium. Irradiation creep is significantly faster than thermal creep due to the increased density of vacancies in irradiated material. The safe operation of nuclear fuel assemblies requires dimensional stability to ensure sufficient coolant flow and the safe operation of control rods when needed. Irradiation growth and creep can lead to bowing and buckling of fuel assemblies, which is of concern with current plants and even more a concern for increased burnup of the nuclear fuel. Consequently, we need to develop a detailed understanding of the mechanisms leading to these phenomena and how they are affected by material chemistry and the microstructure evolution during irradiation.Traditionally, microstructure and damage characterisation of irradiated material is mainly carried out by electron microscopy. However, in the last decade, very powerful 3rd generation synchrotron radiation sources have been built, which represent a tremendous opportunity to develop complementary tools or quantitative characterisation of irradiation damage and microstructure evolution.During the 1960s and 70s many countries including the UK had test reactors that allowed scientists to undertake research on irradiated material. However, most of these test reactors are gone now and it is unlikely that the UK or other countries will build many new test reactors. For this reason, governments have invested in proton/ion accelerators to simulate neutron irradiation. The advantage of such facilities is that they are by many order of magnitudes cheaper to run than a test reactor. However, our understanding of how well neutron induced damage is related to proton/ion induced damage is limited. Since Zr alloys are relatively mildly active when irradiated by neutrons, they represent also an ideal material to calibrate proton/ion against neutron irradiation.During the fellowship my research group will:- identify the role of alloy chemistry and microstructure on irradiation growth and creep of fuel clad,- for the first time extensively use synchrotron radiation to characterise irradiation damage and- calibrate proton/ion irradiated against neutron irradiated cladding material in order to use the convenience of the former (non-active material, easily irradiated to different levels in a short time) to identify the route cause for loop formation resulting in breakaway growth

It is difficult to think of any aspect of everyday life which does not rely in some way on energy supply and use. Behind every energy source is a complex network of stakeholders ensuring a reliable supply from generation through to distribution and use. In recent years, there has been an increasing focus on low carbon energy & renewables and also increasing marketisation, reorganisation and privatisation in the sector, particularly with large utilities.Time series analysis is a statistical cornerstone, of vital importance to many energy related challenges. For example, short-term wind speed forecasting is key for utilities aggregating many sources of supply, as is predicting the future energy use of groups of customers. Time series analysis is also critical to the planning of proposed wind farms to see if the predicted wind power is likely to be efficient and reliable. Over the last decade, the nature of time series encountered by stakeholders has changed. In the past, series were assumed to be stationary (i.e. that their statistical properties did not change over time). Much of what is now experienced is non-stationary. This becomes ever clearer as increasing flows of high-quality data enable new models to be proposed, studied and considered.Compare, for example, wind and gas-fired power. Wind is intermittent and not controllable. Gas powered stations, by comparison, are highly controllable and can produce almost constant power. Incorporating large quantities of wind power into the grid can be problematic as there can be sustained periods without wind, or periods of highly variable wind. Another issue is increasing marketisation: across Europe people are now able to purchase power from a variety of suppliers and modes of supply, distributors supply to different, fragmented parts of the market. Consequently, data collected on consumers or generators is less stable and much less stationary than in previous years.Our proposal addresses this new world of non-stationarity head-on. For several years our team has been at the forefront of developments in non-stationary time series: introducing new classes and using them in new and innovative ways. Our proposal will develop novel techniques to revolutionize the way that such time series are analyzed and hence be of considerable use to our industrial partners and the energy industry more widely. For example, we shall investigate and develop new methods for (i) handling more than one non-stationary series simultaneously; (ii) identifying appropriate sampling rates for series and whether any series have been compromised by inappropriate sampling rates; (iii) dealing with the common problem of data dropouts and irregularly spaced time series but still obtain meaningful insights; (iv) improved methods for forecasting and enabling predictions of one time series from another; (v) improving robust measures of uncertainty of our estimates. Even small improvements in any of these quantitative areas can lead to massive financial, environmental and reliability benefits of value to our partners and society more generally. We intend to create a step-change in the methods and procedures used by energy stakeholders by moving to the non-stationary world.

This proposal seeks funding for a three year research programme into the inspection of buried structures using guided waves. The scientific basis for the use of guided waves to inspect structures such as pipelines, railway lines, plates and pipes has been developed successfully now for about 2 decades, led in particular by researchers in the UK. The new understanding has been taken up in industry, so far concentrating with great success on the inspection of pipelines. However, critically, the enabling scientific research was done for exposed structures, but guided waves in buried structures are radically different. The surrounding materials, which typically include sound-absorbing protective coatings, reduce the practical range of inspection and often give rise to unwanted components of signals which hinder interpretation. These limitations are becoming very apparent in industry where there is a huge attraction to apply the guided wave method to inspect buried parts of pipelines which are otherwise inaccessible. The proposed research will address these problems, aiming to provide the scientific basis for the reliable inspection of buried and coated pipes over maximum distances. The outcomes will have generic benefit also for the guided wave inspection of any other kinds of buried or coated structures. The proposal is being submitted within the UK Research Centre in Non Destructive Evaluation (RCNDE) to the targeted research programme, the funding for which is earmarked by EPSRC for industrially driven research.

This project will inform and influence the need for and use of microgeneration technology (MGT) in new build houses. The research is highly relevant and timely as the UK government has set a target that all new houses must be zero-carbon by 2016 and that the use of MGTs will be needed to meet this target. The widespread introduction and use of MGTs will have significant implications. For energy providers, MGTs will move the balance away from centralised energy generation and distribution towards a decentralised model. MGTs will enable end-users to generate electricity for their own use with any surplus being sold to the grid company. In addition, the installation of MGTs has been found to significantly shift end-users awareness, attitudes and behaviour towards improved energy efficiency. For MGT manufacturers and installers, the substantial increase in demand will expand the MGT market and offer new business opportunities and challenges. Finally, for housing developers, the integration of MGTs will require radical innovation in their business strategies, supply chain management, design and production. The successful diffusion of MGTs in the new build housing sector will therefore need multi-level changes across institutional, supply chain and end-user actors. The uptake of MGTs so far has been extremely small. Research to date on the barriers to MGT diffusion has pursued a limited 'technology push' perspective. This perspective has generally ignored the critical social and market dynamics which shape (and are shaped by) the development and use of MGTs. The proposed research adopts a socio-technical network analysis approach which is needed to properly understand the conditions and processes which facilitate (or hinder) the creation and solidification of appropriate supply chains and end-user strategies and practices. These conditions and processes will vary from country to country. Lessons and good practice may therefore be identified and shared through cross-country comparisons. The programme of work in the project involves three principal streams of integrated activity. First, six UK housing development case studies will be undertaken which will investigate the MGTs employed in particular developments. Housing development case studies will be produced and, from the fieldwork, three key MGTs used in new build housing will be identified. Second, these prioritised MGTs will be the focus of three UK MGT case studies which will concentrate on the particular MGTs and associated manufacture(s). The work will result in MGT case study reports and an analytical framework to allow comparisons between MGTs and between national institutional contexts. Third, the analytical framework will be used to conduct a comparison between France and the UK. EDF researchers will conductthe fieldwork in France. The comparison will allow the integration of cross-national data and comparative institutional analysis of the effect of national conditions on variations in the socio-technical networks supporting the design and deployment of MGTs. The project will benefit from having the following as industrial partners: the National House Building Council Foundation, the Home Builders Federation and the British Electrotechnical and Allied Manufacturers Association. The partners are highly regarded in their sectors and their views are sought by government as the 'representative voice' of the industry. The academic project team from the EPSRC funded Innovative Manufacturing Research Centres at the University of Reading and the University of Salford has a proven track record in leading and managing successful collaborative funded projects. Further, the academic team has the multi-disciplinary expertise required for the project: the delivery of sustainable housing; new product development in high technology sectors; procurement and supply chain management; and, socio-technical network analysis.