There is a large and convincing body of epidemiological evidence linking short term exposure to outdoor air pollutants to adverse health effects. However, most of this evidence is derived from studies that have linked single pollutants to health in urban environments. There is increasing recognition that greater protection against the adverse health effects of air pollution could be achieved by focusing research and policy not on individual pollutants, but by a multi-pollutant approach. Furthermore, the spatial variation in pollutant concentrations and their health impacts, especially in rural areas and areas outside the larger cities where much of the UK population reside, are not-well established. Socio-economic impacts (and related issues of environmental justice) and other geographically-determined factors, including housing characteristics (indoor pollution), are also potential modifiers of exposure to outdoor air pollution. The increasing complexity of the scientific inquiry is matched by the difficulties of formulating, proving and implementing appropriate regulatory policy. This proposal builds upon an existing collaboration between researchers in the environmental and health disciplines, with the addition of investigators and practitioners from the policy and social science fields. Our proposal aims to provide new epidemiological evidence on the health impacts of exposure to multiple pollutants; to examine the implications of such evidence for regulation and control of air quality; and to assess how uncertainties in evidence affect its translation into actionable evidence-based policies and the evaluation of their costs and benefits. There are several unique innovations in our study: 1) the development of long series of high resolution (5 km) datasets for daily concentrations of a range of pollutants and weather data, linked to geo-referenced health data including daily mortality, hospital admissions and data on heart attacks; 2) an examination of the contribution of the indoor environment as a modifier of exposure to outdoor pollutants to provide an integrated assessment of the risks to health of short term exposure to air pollution; 3) an integrated assessment of the health effects of various near-term future air quality and climate policies in 2030 as well as selected emissions reduction policies for the UK; 4) the development of a 'decision analysis' tool that includes assessment of uncertainties and can be used to infer the likely outcomes of these various policy choices.

Over half of global gross domestic product is dependent on nature, yet the past decades have seen unprecedented damage to ecosystems and declines in biodiversity due to adverse human activities. Financial institutions (FIs) can play an important role in securing a nature-positive future. Decisions by FIs over capital allocation and risk pricing influence structural shifts in the real economy that have profound impacts on nature. Today, opportunities to align nature and capital in ways that benefit people, nature and FIs are missed because these impacts are not accounted for. Our aim is to contribute the foundational networks, upskilling of researchers and robust, standardised methods and tools needed to integrate biodiversity and nature into financial decision making. Our focus is the scenarios used by FIs to influence risk pricing and investment decisions, alongside the relevant and suitable data and tools needed for scenario analysis, such as asset-level data and tools to assess nature-related financial risks. A further novel aspect of our proposal is the on integrated nature-climate scenarios. Scenarios and analytics for use by FIs must consider biodiversity and climate in an integrated way. Biodiversity and climate are often treated in siloes, driving potential systemic risks. Important interactions and feedbacks are not accounted for, leading to underestimation of risks and critical tipping points. An important innovation in our proposal is to bring together the IPBES, IPCC and FI scenarios communities, leaders of whom are partners to this project, to address this gap. Integrating nature and climate requires new science; our proposal is to develop the networks and co-design and pilot the frameworks to achieve this - i.e. the foundational common framework and language needed to close the gap. This will create the foundation to Phase 2 that will generate the new datasets and toolkits needed. Here we particularly target scenarios and analytics for use by Central Banks and Supervisors (CB&Ss). This is because CB&Ss are important catalysts of wider action by FIs. Supervisory expectations and regulations, e.g. disclosure, capital requirements and stress-testing, set the rules by which FIs operate, while monetary policies shape the playing field, together having a major influence on global capital flows and so nature. In developing this proposal, we have consulted with the leading CB&Ss and policy makers (e.g. Defra, HMT) that are shaping this agenda and leading work on scenarios, all of whom have agreed to join the project as project partners. This includes the European Central Bank, the Banque de France, De Nederlandsche Bank, the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors (CB&Ss) for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), and the Task Force on Nature-Related Financial Disclosures (TNFD). Phase 1 of the project will deliver several important building blocks. Firstly, it will establish and operationalise the multi-disciplinary nature-climate-finance network. Secondly, it will co-develop the framework and guidance to generate the nature-climate scenarios and analytics, alongside syntheses of evidence and gap analyses. Finally, it will deliver a demonstrator application to a CB&S use case in stress testing nature-related risks. We will capture lessons learnt through this project to inform Phase 2, as well as share them to inform the development of the wider NERC Nature Positive Futures (NPF) programme. Our goal is that the network and the analytical framework developed will ultimately catalyse shifts in financial flows that reduce systemic risks and are aligned with a nature-positive future. Through consultations, we have understood the key milestones and actors to achieve this and shaped the project accordingly. We will work closely with our project partners, and link to UKCGFI, to ensure our outputs feed into the key processes, as well as collaborate with and support the wider NPF programme goals.

Nitrogen compounds are essential for life. They are needed to make many biological compounds including proteins, amino acids, DNA and ATP (the 'fuel source' of cells), without which no living organism could survive. Nitrogen is particularly important because it often limits food production, while high levels of N compounds in the environment lead to serious pollution problems. By supplying N fertilizers, farmers greatly improve their yields. This has been essential to feed the growing world population over the last century, with N fertilizers estimated to sustain ~3.5 billion people, almost half of humanity. While the increased manufacture and mobilization of reactive N sources can be seen as a great feat of 'geoengineering', there have been many unintended consequences. A growing human population needs more food, so more fertilizers, especially as we now eat more animal products per person. The result is a complex web of pollution issues, threatening water, air and soil quality, altering climate balance and impacting on ecosystems and human health. In addition to the loss of N from farms, other sources cannot be forgotten. These include air emissions from burning, and losses to water from sewage systems. Overall, human alteration of the global N cycle makes for a multi-issue problem that ranks alongside climate change as one of the great challenges of the 21st century. The European Nitrogen Assessment has estimated that N pollution alone causes 70-320 billion Euro per year of damage across the EU (Nature, 14 April 2011,472,159). Given the wide diversity of nitrogen loss pathways into the environment, there are many potential solutions. In a recent report 'Our Nutrient World' led by CEH for the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP, launched Feb 2013), 10 key actions were identified which would contribute to better nutrient management, simultaneously helping to meet food security goals while reducing the pollution of air, land and water, with multiple benefits for ecosystems, climate and human health. However, 'Our Nutrient World' also identified that there is currently no global international agreement that links the many benefits and threats of nitrogen. As a result, there is also no coordinated scientific assessment and support process to quantify and demonstrate these linkages. This gap is now being addressed by the International Opportunities Fund (IOF) of the NERC through its support for a new endeavour "Pump priming to towards the International Nitrogen Management System" - or 'INMSpp' for short. The central idea is that a scientific support system is needed that can provide the evidence needed to show how joined-up management of the global nitrogen cycle will deliver multiple benefits, and to be able to evaluate options that policy makers may wish to consider. Already there is a developing ambition for INMS as reflected by the invitation from the UN Global Environment Facility (GEF) for the NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) to work with UNEP to develop a concept to establish a future INMS approach. Ultimately this would be a major endeavour, linking indicators, models and datasets to allow evaluation of possible international agreements. The INMS pump priming project provides a key step towards this eventual goal. As one of the key challenges to establish model chains from source to impact to mitigation and adaptation the INMSpp project has taken on the task of working out how integrated global modelling of the nitrogen cycle should be developed. The project will bring together a global consortium to examine how models can be joined up to demonstrate the net benefits of better nitrogen management. This will be a key resource as the INMS approach is developed. The outcome is the prospect to show how linking up different international environmental agreements can build common ground, simultaneously supporting food and energy security and a cleaner environment.

The work to help internationalise ADVENT and facilitate assessment of its findings in the long term will be conducted in three phases. In the initial phase, KAPtEN and ADVENT teams will produce a set of questions and initial statements that are relevant internationally and that will be explored further, building on ADVENT's four initial workshops. In particular, a workshop on the role of energy in ecosystem services and natural capital conceptual frameworks will set the basis for characterising the impacts of specific energy chains and energy infrastructure development on the UK's marine, aquatic, coastal and terrestrial environments, and understand how different means of sourcing energy from outside the UK would impact global ecosystem services. Similarly, a workshop on currently projected energy pathways will look at what we currently know about the nexus between energy, land and water and the trade-offs and synergies associated with different patterns of energy development. These are important topics that will grow with the increasing pressure and desire to move towards a sustainable use of resources. The very first contribution of KAPtEN will be to develop a simplified web portal to facilitate the crowd-sourcing of a literature review around each of the questions and statements arising from these workshops, which will be turned into a databank of resources exportable in reference management systems (e.g. Endnote). In the second phase, a new, professional-looking and easy to use ICT platform will be developed and tested on the valuation of Energy and Nature together. The principle behind the ICT platform is that users more easily react to statements that are already made, by confirming or contradicting them. Thus the ICT platform will start from a set of key statements that together will form the 'Map of Current Knowledge' - or the MoCK. The ICT platform hosting the MoCK statements will include options to link new research papers and to explain how these papers support, challenge, or contradict the existing statements. Anyone can link papers, not just the authors. This is the crowd-sourcing part of the project. If a paper is linked to a MoCK statement, the authors (who are the 'experts'), will be invited to revise the explanations if they wish and to rank other papers up or down, so that with time the papers voted 'up' by most experts will appear at the top. In the final phase, we will publish 10-20 key statements on the valuation of Energy and Nature together, in a joint ADVENT-KAPtEN effort, including international partners, and co-chaired by senior colleagues with extensive experience, to be submitted to a high-impact journal (e.g. Nature Energy). These 10-20 statements will be the ADVENT MoCK that will be posted on the KAPtEN ICT platform and start the continuous assessment process of forming the Map of New Knowledge - or the MoNK. We will use our extensive networks through connections with our international partners, Future Earth, Tyndall Centre partners, IPBES, IPCC and others to invite people to link their papers and show how they inform the assessment made in ADVENT with their international knowledge. As the KAPtEN ICT platform develops, we will be working with Future Earth and IPBES partners to develop other MoCKs, so that with time, KAPtEN will make a step change in our capacity to transparently and continuously assess the state of science, inter-link fields such as Energy and Nature, and inform policy of the environment and beyond. One of our international project partner said 'this ICT platform has the potential to revolutionize the way scientific assessments are done, by opening up the process for contributions by the entire research community, and by establishing a transparent yet organized set of rules to highlight the emerging consensus and issues'.

A reliable water supply and a successful energy transition are two necessary conditions for a sustainable future. Yet we know little about how the switch to intermittent renewables (wind, solar) for our energy supply will affect the operation of our water infrastructure. The time for planning for this is now: unpreparedness in the face of energy supply fluctuations has wide-ranging economic impacts, as demonstrated by the developing energy crisis (as of January 2022). The dual aim of this New Investigator Award proposal is to develop a fast water-energy simulator to quantify the impacts of a decarbonised nationwide power grid on water resource systems, and to demonstrate its integration into state-of-the-art strategic water resource planning. This simulator will be the first to enable the exploration of the joint dynamics of water resource systems and low carbon energy systems at timescales ranging from hourly to multi-annual. This project will also promote an improved understanding of flexibility as an opportunity to adapt to a decarbonised grid as well as to buffer against drought. To achieve its aims, the project will address the following challenges: (C1) How can we represent the variability of weather-dependent inputs (wind, solar irradiation, rainfall) and their consequences in coupled water-energy systems? Weather evolves at fine timescales (e.g., hourly) and low precipitations can threaten water supply over a few years. Representing how these timescales interact, while including the national power grid, is a challenge that has yet to be tackle by academic research. To tackle this, the project will implement a fast hourly water-energy system simulator including the national electricity grid, both to assess energy transition impacts on water systems and measure first-order benefits of using the built-in flexibility of water systems to manage energy demand. (C2) How can we identify decision-relevant scenarios across the full range of uncertainty created by climate change, population growth and the energy transition? This project will use the coupled simulator to explore potential climate-energy-population futures and address this question, for the first time integrating energy transition scenarios into water planning. (C3) How can we integrate the transition to a low-carbon grid into strategic water resource planning? This project will achieve that, first on a single piece of water-energy infrastructure (e.g., desalination plant connected both to local renewable energy and to the grid), then at the scale of a regional water system supplying several million users in the East of England. This project will help the water sector (companies and regulators) plan for the triple challenge of climate change, population growth, and the energy transition, and deliver a reliable water supply at affordable rates for water users.