The REsearch centre on Privacy, Harm Reduction and Adversarial INfluence online (REPHRAIN) will bring together the UK's substantial academic, industry, policy and third sector capabilities to address the current tensions and imbalances between the substantial benefits to be gained by full participation in the digital economy and the potential for harm through loss of privacy, insecurity, disinformation and a myriad of other online harms. Combining world-leading experts from the Universities of Bristol, Edinburgh, Bath, King's and UCL, the REPHRAIN Centre will use an interdisciplinary approach - alongside principles of responsible innovation and creative engagement - to develop new insights that allow the socio-economic benefits of a digital economy to be maximised whilst minimising the online harms that emerge from this. REPHRAIN's leadership team will drive these insights in technical, social, behavioural, policy and regulatory research on privacy, privacy enhancing technologies and online harms, through an initial scoping phase and 25 inaugural projects. The work of REPHRAIN will be focused around three core missions and four engagement and impact objectives. Mission 1 emphasises the requirement to deliver privacy at scale whilst mitigating its misuse to inflict harms. This will focus on reconciling the tension between data privacy and lawful expectations of transparency by not only drawing heavily on advances in privacy-enhancing technologies (PETs), but also leveraging the full range of socio-technical approaches to rethink how we can best address potential trade-offs. Mission 2 emphasises the need to minimise harms whilst maximising the benefits from a sharing-driven digital economy, redressing citizens' rights in transactions in the data-driven economic model by transforming the narrative from privacy as confidentiality only to also include agency, control, transparency and ethical and social values. Finally, Mission 3 focuses on addressing the balance between individual agency and social good, developing a rigorous understanding of what privacy represents for different sectors and groups in society (including those hard to reach), the different online harms to which they may be exposed, and the cultural and societal nuances impacting effectiveness of harm-reduction approaches in practice. These missions are supported by four engagement and impact objectives that represent core pillars of REPHRAIN's approach: (1) design and engagement; (2) adoption and adoptability; (3) responsible, inclusive and ethical innovation; and (4) policy and regulation. Combined, these objectives will deliver co-production, co-creation and impact at scale across academia, industry, policy and the third sector. These activities will be complemented by a capability fund, which will ensure that REPHRAIN activities remain flexible and responsive to current issues, addressing emerging capability gaps, maximising impact and cultivating a public space for collaboration. REPHRAIN will be managed by a Strategic Board and supported by an External Advisory Group, the REPHRAIN Ethics Board, and will work with multiple external stakeholders across industry, public, and the third sector. Outcomes from the centre will be synthesised into the REPHRAIN Toolbox - a one-stop resource for researchers, practitioners, policy-makers, regulators and citizens - which will contribute to developing a culture of continuous learning, collaboration and open engagement and reflection within the area of online harm reduction. Overall, REPHRAIN focuses on interdisciplinary leadership provided by a highly experienced team and supported by state-of-the-art facilities, to develop and apply scientific expertise to ensure that the benefits of a digital society can be enjoyed safely and securely by all.

Human trafficking is widely described as one of the world's biggest, fastest growing and most lucrative organised crimes. For all the bold rhetoric, there is woefully little scientific evidence on human trafficking's scale, nature, distribution, organisation and evolution. The number of victims officially identified in the UK grows year-on-year but these cases are just the tip of the iceberg as many victims go unreported or undetected. A recent estimate suggested the UK had around 7,000 to 10,000 trafficking victims in one year. Human trafficking is not only a complex social issue but also a very emotive one: it often involves the sale of vulnerable people and extreme exploitation of their bodies and labour. It causes serious harms, undermining the safety, security and welfare of individual victims, communities and nations. Many millions of pounds are spent each year trying to combat trafficking. Without a strong evidence base, there is a very real risk that myths, stereotypes, assumptions and hidden agendas step in to fill the gaps. Ill-informed measures can be very costly, ineffective and even actively detrimental. It is therefore vital to invest in high-quality research to improve understanding and inform policy and practice. Our ultimate vision is to improve how data are used to analyse and intervene in transnational human trafficking. Our research will support a far more targeted and nuanced approach to counter-trafficking. It focuses on three key dimensions to the complex systems involved in trafficking: social structures, geographical space and time. We will systematically examine the structure of the social networks in which traffickers and victims are embedded, identifying key roles and vulnerabilities. We will determine where major steps in the trafficking process occur, mapping hotspots (places where crime concentrates), profiling key locations and examining supply and demand, risk and resilience and geographical flows. We will analyse patterns and trends in trafficking and their evolution over time. Throughout the research, we will explore the implications of our results for better detecting, deterring and disrupting trafficking, increasing resilience and reducing harms. Our project will be the largest and most comprehensive assessment of transnational human trafficking affecting the UK. It will include adult and child victims trafficked for diverse purposes, including exploitation in the sex trade, the home and numerous other licit and illicit labour markets. Data access is a notorious barrier to trafficking research but we have remarkable access to important national datasets: the UK's central system for victim identification; the Modern Slavery Helpline; and a unique research dataset on trafficking networks. We will also draw widely on publicly available datasets (e.g. Census data) to inform our analyses. We will use methods that vastly advance understanding of human trafficking but have rarely been possible in this field due to shortages of data and skills. Our work is truly interdisciplinary, drawing on geography, crime science, criminology, data science, epidemiology, sociology, computer science and mathematics. Our research will generate vital insights into transnational human trafficking on an unprecedented scale. We have an outstanding team that combines leading academics, non-governmental organisations, law enforcement and government. Our collaborative approach positions us well to translate excellent scientific research into genuine change. As well traditional academic outputs, we will run interactive workshops in the UK and abroad, develop a software solution, training and toolkits, produce policy briefings and deliver an innovative and tightly targeted campaign to counter trafficking. We will also run events and produce outputs designed to stimulate more high-quality research and research-informed interventions not just around human trafficking but other transnational organised crimes.

If we are to meet the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals by their target of 2030, we need to develop better statistical methods to map the prevalence of vulnerable populations. In this fellowship, I will A. carry out foundational research into effective computational statistics methods for hidden populations, B. use the methods to map modern slavery at local, national and international levels, and C. work with my project partners to change policy based on our evidence-based research. To meet the Sustainable Development Goals, we need to measure how close we are to meeting them, quantify who is most in need of support and evaluate how successful interventions are in creating sustainable development. Take, for example, victims of modern slavery. Victims are often marginalised and hidden, with abuses going unreported and unmonitored. Estimating how many victims there are, where the abuses are happening and evaluating the effectiveness of interventions to support victims remain a challenge to the field of modern slavery and sustainable development more broadly. Data about victims and abuses is often noisy, poor quality or simply not collected. Developments in computational statistics can be really powerful here. They will provide a framework to deal with poor quality and missing data, while simultaneously avoiding specific and arbitrary assumptions about how the abuses are happening. Current methods require researchers to make specific assumptions about the abuses they are modelling which are difficult to justify from the data. The methods I develop will move away from this, instead making more general, mathematical assumptions. This will allow the data to speak for itself and can provide better counterfactual evidence and more realistic conclusions. To meet this aim, I bring a strong track record of developing these methods for epidemics, where my methods have been shown to reduce the need for specific assumptions when the data is poor quality. However, this flexibility comes at the cost of a larger computational burden, increased uncertainty in the results, and a requirement for technical expertise when using the methods. To speed up progress to meeting the Sustainable Development Goals, researchers need methods that can be used in practice. I will lead the development of effective computational statistical methods. By reducing the computational burden, providing mechanisms to deal with the uncertainty in the results, and making methods easy to implement, they will become much more attractive to non-statisticians. I have already shown how my developments can considerably reduce the data collection burden when mapping poverty, making these methods more attractive to research and organisations working in poverty reduction. A key part of this fellowship is collaboration with a research software engineer who can develop data systems and software that other researchers and organisations can use to implement my methods. I will use my methods to solve pressing problems in modern slavery and advance the field to meet the UN's goal to end slavery by 2030. I will work with my project partners to map modern slavery at local, national and international levels. This fellowship has the potential to save lives and show how computational statistics can advance progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals. By leveraging support from my project partners, I will influence politicians and policy makers to use my results to safeguard victims and prevent potential victims from suffering from modern slavery abuses.

In times of crisis, we know that offenders continue to commit crimes, and do so in a manner afforded by the new context (Thornton & Voigt, 2012). Sexual offenders are versatile (Lovell et al., 2019), and change their offending behaviour in accordance with the opportunity to offend (Woodhams & Komarzynska, 2014). The Covid-19 outbreak is a crisis that will alter offender behaviour, as well as who is vulnerable to sexual violence and under what circumstances. Our research is highly urgent because, in the UK and internationally, the police and other stakeholders need to know now how to protect people from increased and new vulnerabilities to sexual violence created by Covid-19, and how to best support those victimised. We will address this research gap, documenting the 'who, what, when, where and how' of stranger sexual offending (Leclerc et al. 2016), pre-, peri- (and potentially, post-) Covid-19, and across shorter time-periods defined by differing local/national restrictions. Our project partner, the Serious Crime Analysis Section (SCAS) of the National Crime Agency, has a unique, large dataset of serious stranger sexual offences. Using this, we will document how offender modus operandi (MO) and victim vulnerability changes from March 2020 to September 2021, and compare this to one year of pre-Covid-19 data (March 2019 to February 2020). These data will be subject to repeated, multi-level analyses using our complementary expertise in analytical techniques from the social and engineering sciences. For example, relative frequencies for behaviours will be compared for periods of differing restrictions, and trends will be compared to macro-level findings regarding crime rates being produced by other research groups. The Covid-19 crisis is unlikely to impact on specific behaviours in isolation; therefore, we will also study patterns of co-occurrence between behaviours using clustering techniques. As well as being of urgent relevance to stakeholders, our research will bring new insights to the sparse literature on situational crime prevention and sexual offending (Chiu et al., 2020). Dissemination of our methodology will assist other countries where, during the Covid-19 outbreak, the proportion of stranger sexual offences is high (e.g., Kenya; Flowe et al., 2020). Our findings will be relevant for preparations and responses to future pandemics and events where a population's routine activities (locally/nationally) are changed or disrupted (e.g., pandemics, natural disasters, humanitarian emergencies).

There are approximately 30 million slaves alive today. Around the world, including in the UK, these disposable people are held against their will, trapped in a situation of control such as a person might control a thing, and forced to work for no pay. This number is more than at any point in history and more people than were transported from Africa to the Western Hemisphere during the entirety of the Atlantic slave trade. It is a number greater than the population of Australia and almost seven times greater than the population of Ireland. It includes around 1.1 million enslaved people in Europe. Over the past 15 years, a growing movement against this new global slavery has achieved many successes, including new legislation, a small number of prosecutions, changes to company supply-chains, and increased public awareness. But it is repeating mistakes of the past. Around the world, it starts from scratch rather than learning from earlier antislavery successes and failures. Focused on urgent liberations and prosecutions, antislavery workers operate within short time frames and rarely draw on the long history of antislavery successes, failures, experiments and strategies. At the same time, the public reads about shocking cases of women enslaved for 30 years in London, children enslaved in rural cannabis factories, and the large number of slaves who mine the conflict minerals used to make our mobile phones and laptops. For many of us, this presence of slavery confounds our understanding of history: wasn't slavery brought to an end? Weren't the slaves emancipated? This confusion extends beyond the public to politicians, policy makers, human rights groups, and educators. Official responses to slavery cases often reflect this confusion, expressing more emotional outrage than clear thinking. However, responding to recently-expressed interest by antislavery groups and policy makers, including the recent appeal by Luis C. DeBaca (Ambassador in the State Department Office to Monitor and Combat Trafficking in Persons) for scholars to translate the lessons of abolitionism for contemporary use, our project seeks to provide this movement with a usable past of antislavery examples and methods. We will bring to the present the important lessons from antislavery movements and policies of the past, and help translate those lessons into effective tools for policy makers, civil society, and citizens. As we identify, theorise and embed antislavery as a protest memory for contemporary abolitionism in this way, we will also emphasise that what earlier antislavery generations achieved was harder than what we face today, we don't have to repeat the mistakes of past movements, the voices of survivors are the best signposts to where we should be going next, and the lessons of past antislavery movements offer a way to 'care for the future'. Throughout the project and across all its strands, we offer in the face of a mammoth task-ending the enslavement of 30 million people-a reminder of past antislavery achievements. For example, on the eve of the American Revolution, few Americans could envision a world in which slavery did not exist. Yet 100 years later, slavery did become illegal in the United States. This was an achievement that stemmed from the collective, varied and ever-evolving protest of countless slaves and abolitionists. Today we have a chance to end slavery, and to do so within our own lifetimes. This will be a watershed for humanity, a moment when we finally reject *the* great lie of history, that some people are sub-human, and embrace instead that great abolitionist truth-the truth that earlier abolitionists tried to teach us-that labour must not be forced and that people are not for sale.