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¿Cambio climático o variabilidad climática en Coto Brus?: controversias sobre las perspectivas de los efectos de la tormenta tropical Nicole y el huracán Thomas en el cultivo del café

Authors: Granados Carvajal, Rafael Evelio; Porras Solís, Ángel Jesús; Calvo Solano, Oscar David;

¿Cambio climático o variabilidad climática en Coto Brus?: controversias sobre las perspectivas de los efectos de la tormenta tropical Nicole y el huracán Thomas en el cultivo del café

Abstract

Este trabajo busca determinar si el cambio climático es el principal responsable de la crisis socioeconómica en el cantón de Coto brus, Puntarenas, Costa Rica, a raíz de la pérdida de la cosecha del cultivo del café en el año 2010 debido a los efectos de la tormenta tropical nicole y el huracán Thomas. Para ello, se realizó un análisis estadístico de información meteorológica proveniente de dos estaciones locales (tanto de datos en bruto como de datos rellenados), un análisis de reducción de escala y un análisis del Índice de Precipitación Estandarizada para la zona de estudio, con el fin de determinar si hay o no presencia de cambio climático o de variabilidad climática. Se obtuvo, que existe una variación normal de las variables meteorológicas en la zona de estudio. Además, se concluye que la crisis socioeconómica que vive el cantón no es atribuible al cambio climático. Se sugiere que se desarrollen estrategias de adaptación ante futuros eventos extremos y que se generen procesos de política pública top-down en los cuales se puedan articular todos los actores interesados para diseñar mejores estrategias de desarrollo y elevar la calidad de vida del cantón a partir del fortalecimiento de su principal actividad económica a saber: el cultivo del café. This research seeks to determinate if climate change is the main cause of the socio-economic crisis in Coto brus, Puntarenas, Costa Rica, since the negative effects in coffee crops in 2010 due to the tropical storm nicole and hurricane Thomas. An statistical analysis of meteorological stations data, a downscaling process and an Standardized Precipitation Index analysis was developed for the zone of interest with the purpose of determinate if there is the presence of climate change or climate variability in Coto brus. There is a normal behavior in the meteorological variables in the zone of interest. As a conclusion, climate change is not the main cause of the socio-economic crisis of Coto brus. We suggest the development of adaptation strategies for possible future extreme events and also the creation of development programs and top-down public policies due to increase the quality of life of the zone by reinforcing their principal economic activity: the agriculture of coffee crops. Universidad de Costa Rica/[805-B2-A47]/UCR/Costa Rica Universidad de Costa Rica/[805-A4-906]/UCR/Costa Rica UCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI)

Country
Costa Rica
Related Organizations
Keywords

Variabilidad climática, Políticas públicas anticipadas, 551.672 86 Climatología y estado atmosférico, Advanced public policies, Cambio climático, Cultivo del café, Climate change, Coffee crops, Extreme events, Climate variability, Eventos extremos

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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