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An integrated approach to incorporating climate uncertainties into urban land-use change modelling

Authors: YU, HONGXUAN (author);

An integrated approach to incorporating climate uncertainties into urban land-use change modelling

Abstract

Urbanization makes cities more vulnerable in the face of climate change risks. Understanding urban growth under climate change can help planners optimize land allocation and development strategies that are resilient to the impacts of climate change. However, the complexity and uncertainty of climate change hinder the urban growth projections and make it hard to form local climate adaptation plans. Therefore, this research aims to develop a methodology to incorporate climate uncertainties into land-use models to explore plausible futures. The literature review results indicate the lack of a methodology to quantitatively link climate change effects with land-use models and to systematically explore the full parameter space of the climate uncertainties. Hence, our main research question becomes “How can an integrated land-use modelling methodology be developed to help systematically explore the impacts of climate uncertainties on urban growth?” This research question is answered by integrating Metronamica, a cellular-automata-based land-use modelling framework with Exploratory Modelling. The Metropolitan Region of Amsterdam (MRA) is selected as the case city to demonstrate the proposed methodology, and the research scope focuses on flooding, a typical and important climate impact. Specifically, we include the flooding probability maps into the “suitability” section under Metronamica, based on the principle that the higher the flooding risk of an area, the lower the suitability value. These flooding suitability values are deemed as uncertain in our research and they are not given fixed values but certain uncertainty ranges. The flooding factors and their defined uncertainty ranges are added to a model established for the case city. Then this model is connected with the Exploratory Modelling Analysis (EMA) workbench and generates 2000 experiments by the random samplings and combinations of the uncertainties. In the result analysis step, we use clustering algorithms to select 34 representative maps, followed by the ...

Country
Netherlands
Related Organizations
Keywords

land-use change, exploratory modelling, urban resilience, climate change, uncertainty exploration, cellular automata, 710

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
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