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Оцінка впливу температурних показників на формування маляріогенності території України ; Evaluation of temperature characteristics impact on the formation of the malariogenic situation in Ukraine

Оцінка впливу температурних показників на формування маляріогенності території України ; Evaluation of temperature characteristics impact on the formation of the malariogenic situation in Ukraine

Abstract

Malaria is an anthroponotic protozoan vector-borne disease which takes 2.6 % of all worldwide diseases. To estimate the level of malariogenic potential of a certain territory, air temperature data should be taken into account. Due to shifting the temperature patterns, climate change can create more appropriate conditions for malaria spreading; that is why it is important to estimate spacial distribution of malaria vectors and parasites for further evaluation of these species’ areal increase. In this research we have compared the temperature data (1991-2010) and prognoses (Shevchenko, 2014) for 5 main regions of Ukraine (Northern, Southern, Eastern, Western, and Central) with a temperature range tolerance for malaria vector (mosquito g. Anopheles) and parasites (P. vivax, P. malariae and P. falciparum). Climatic conditions in Ukraine allow executing a full sporogonic cycle of P. vivax and P. malariae in mosquito organism in all regions during the summer period. To form sporozoites P. falciparum the average seasonal temperature should not be lower than 18 °С, which is not expected for Western part of Ukraine. Winter temperatures in Ukraine are not optimal for sporozoites development in the organism of a mosquito and can be regarded as limiting factors for malaria spread in winter. At the same time, spreading of mosquito g. Anopheles is possible on the territory of Ukraine according the current climatic situation and prognosis made. The optimal air temperatures for mosquito g. Anopheles lifecycle can be found at Southern Ukraine which determines a high possibility of their expansion. Nowadays temperature characteristics in Ukraine correspond to medium risk of malaria expansion (according to the risk classification of the Ministry of health of the Russian Federation). Temperature prognosis till 2030 shows the possible increase of the risk level to a relatively high, which emphasizes the importance of new adaptation measures related to climate change threat. ; Малярія – антропонозна трансмісивна хвороба, частка якої ...

Country
Ukraine
Keywords

climate change, vector (mosquito g. Anopheles), malaria parasite, переносник (комар роду Anopheles), malaria, малярія, зміна клімату, малярійний плазмодій

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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Energy Research