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Cambios futuros de la precipitación extrema en el sudeste de Sudamérica : modelado climático estadístico regional y patrones de circulación sinóptica ; Future changes in extreme precipitation in Southeastern South America : regional statistical climate modeling and synoptic circulation patterns

Authors: Olmo, Matías Ezequiel;

Cambios futuros de la precipitación extrema en el sudeste de Sudamérica : modelado climático estadístico regional y patrones de circulación sinóptica ; Future changes in extreme precipitation in Southeastern South America : regional statistical climate modeling and synoptic circulation patterns

Abstract

Este trabajo de tesis se propone avanzar en el modelado estadístico climático regional de extremos de precipitación en el sudeste de Sudamérica (SESA) y su proyección bajo cambio climático. Se identificaron las principales características de la lluvia extrema –según su frecuencia, intensidad y arealidad– considerando múltiples observaciones de precipitación, reanálisis y modelos climáticos regionales (RCMs) y globales (GCMs). Se encontraron estructuras sinópticas que favorecen los extremos en áreas sectorizadas de SESA, que los modelos logran generalmente reproducir aunque mostrando limitaciones en la ubicación e intensidad de la precipitación. Esta clasificación se empleó para construir modelos estadísticos de reducción de escala (ESD) utilizando modelos lineales generalizados condicionados a cada patrón, que fueron comparados con otras técnicas ESD mostrando un buen desempeño en la lluvia y sus extremos. Se aplicó una selección de modelos ESD a múltiples GCMs, evidenciando que la mayoría muestran valor agregado. Los modelos estadísticos son sensibles a los GCM que los forzaron, aunque la elección de técnica ESD también introduce diferencias. Las proyecciones muestran aumentos en la precipitación, asociados a más eventos extremos, con tasas de cambio consistentes entre simulaciones hasta mediados de siglo, cuando surge una mayor dispersión, destacando el beneficio del ensamble multi-modelo. ; This thesis work aims to advance in the regional climatic statistical modeling of precipitation extremes in southeastern South America (SESA) and their projection under climate change. The main characteristics of extreme rainfall were identified –according to their frequency, intensity, and areality– considering multiple precipitation observations, reanalysis, regional (RCMs) and global (GCMs) climate models. Synoptic structures were found that favor the extremes in sectorized areas of SESA, which the models are generally able to reproduce, although they show limitations in the location and intensity of precipitation. This ...

Country
Argentina
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Keywords

PRECIPITACION EXTREMA, MODELADO CLIMATICO REGIONAL, INCERTIDUMBRE, PATRONES DE CIRCULACION SINOPTICA, EMPIRICAL STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING, SYNOPTIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS, REDUCCION DE ESCALA ESTADISTICA, EXTREME RAINFALL, CLIMATE CHANGE, UNCERTAINTY, CAMBIO CLIMATICO, REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELING

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Related to Research communities
Energy Research