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Couplage de modèles trophiques et effets combinés de la pêche et du climat

Authors: Travers, Morgane;

Couplage de modèles trophiques et effets combinés de la pêche et du climat

Abstract

La surexploitation et le changement climatique affectent le fonctionnement des écosystèmes marins, mais des incertitudes existent quant aux effets de leur action combinée. Par une approche de modélisation, ce travail de thèse vise à étudier comment les effets top-down de la pêche et les effets bottom-up du climat se combinent au sein du réseau trophique. Une synthèse bibliographique préliminaire a révélé l'absence d'un modèle end-to-end applicable en l'état à notre écosystème d'étude - le sud-Benguela - qui permettrait l'étude des effets conjoints de la pêche et du climat. Le couplage des modèles de plancton ROMS-N2P2Z2D2 et de poissons OSMOSE s'est alors imposé comme une méthode innovante permettant de développer un outil approprié à nos objectifs. L'importance d'un couplage à double sens via la prédation est illustrée par l'étude des variabilités spatiale et temporelle du terme de rétroaction, puis par la comparaison des dynamiques planctoniques et écosystémiques lorsqu'il y a rétroaction ou non. La simulation de scénarios climatique et halieutique montre que les effets combinés de la pêche et du climat sont généralement plus faibles que la somme de leurs effets individuels. Ce résultat reflète la forte résistance du système aux perturbations extérieures, induite par les relations trophiques nombreuses et variables entre les organismes. En accord avec les hypothèses de fonctionnement trophique basées sur l'intensité de la production primaire et la diversité des prédateurs, l'étude de la pyramide trophique montre que le contrôle bottom-up domine dans le sud-Benguela, i.e. que le climat affecte le fonctionnement trophique de cet écosystème plus fortement que de la pêche.

Overfishing and climate change are now recognized to have important effects on marine ecosystem functioning but uncertainties remains about their combined effects. Using a modelling approach this thesis aims at assessing how the top-down effects of fishing and the bottom-up effects of climate combine themselves within the food web. A preliminary review highlighted the lack of end-to-end model applicable as it stands to our study case - the southern Benguela - and suitable to study the combined effects of fishing and climate. Coupling the plankton model ROMS-N2P2Z2D2 and the fish model OSMOSE appeared as an innovative method allowing to develop an appropriate tool meeting our objectives. The importance of two-way coupling via the predation process is first illustrated by the study of spatial and temporal variabilities of the feedback term, and then by the comparison of plankton and ecosystem dynamics when there is feedback or not. Simulating climate and fishing scenarios show that the combined effects of these factors are generally smaller than the sum of their individual effects. This result reflects the strong resilience of the ecosystem to external perturbations, induced by the numerous and weak trophic interactions between organisms. In agreement with hypotheses of trophic functioning based on the intensity of primary production and predators diversity, the study of the trophic pyramid show that bottom-up control dominates in the southern Benguela, i.e. that climate has stronger effects on the trophic functioning of this ecosystem than fishing.

Country
France
Keywords

surexploitation, overfishing, changement climatique, food web, southern Benguela, end-to-end model, modèle end-to-end, climate change, couplage de modèle, combined effects, model coupling, réseau trophique, sud- Benguela, effets combinés

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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