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Plants, People, Planet
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Assessing the vulnerability of Australia’s urban forests to climate extremes

تقييم مدى تأثر الغابات الحضرية في أستراليا بالظواهر المناخية المتطرفة
Authors: Manuel Esperón‐Rodríguez; Sally A. Power; Mark G. Tjoelker; Linda J. Beaumont; Hugh M. Burley; Dayenari Caballero‐Rodríguez; Paul D. Rymer;

Assessing the vulnerability of Australia’s urban forests to climate extremes

Abstract

Societal Impact StatementUrban forests are recognized for the multiple benefits they provide to city‐dwellers. However, climate change will affect tree species survival and persistence in urban ecosystems. Tree failures will cause economic losses and jeopardize the delivery of societal benefits. The impacts of climate change will depend on the species’ resilience and adaptive capacity, as well as management actions which may ameliorate some of the negative impacts. Here, we assessed the potential vulnerability of Australia's urban forests to climate extremes. Our results can be used for future urban planning aiming to incorporate species that are well‐adapted to the hotter, drier climates expected with climate change.SummaryUrban forests (UFs) are recognized for the multiple benefits they provide to city‐dwellers. However, global climate change—particularly predicted increases in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and drought—will affect tree species’ performance and survival in urban ecosystems.Here, we assessed species composition and potential vulnerability of UFs in 22 Australian significant urban areas (SUAs) to heat and/or moisture stress. We quantified species’ realized climatic niches across their known distribution, and assessed the extent to which baseline climate in the SUAs where a particular species is planted fell within its niche. We used three environmental variables to group species based on their potential climate vulnerability.UFs varied in species composition and climate vulnerability across the continent. In general, neither climate similarity nor geographical proximity were good predictors of species composition among UFs. Of 1,342 tree species assessed (68.4% natives), 53% were considered potentially vulnerable to heat and/or moisture stress in at least one city where they are currently planted.Our results highlight the climate vulnerability of current plantings across Australian SUAs and can be used to direct future species selection that considers the species’ climate of origin and climatic niche. UF planning can incorporate species from SUAs with similar climates and with low vulnerability to contemporary, as well as future climate conditions. Species with high climate vulnerability, in contrast, may require more intensive management to avoid failure under future hotter, drier climate conditions.

Keywords

Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis, vulnerability, Urban Green Space, city planning, Vulnerability (computing), Biodiversity Conservation and Ecosystem Management, 050101 - Ecological Impacts of Climate Change, Computer security, Climate change, Psychology, GE1-350, Environmental resource management, urban forestry, Psychological resilience, Species Distribution Modeling and Climate Change Impacts, Geography, Ecology, species selection, Ecological Modeling, 070504 - Forestry Management and Environment, FOS: Psychology, climate change, climate niche, Physical Sciences, landscape planting, Adaptive capacity, 050204 - Environmental Impact Assessment, Environmental science, climatic changes, Impact of Urban Green Space on Public Health, Ecosystem services, Biology, biogeography, Ecosystem, Nature and Landscape Conservation, species composition, Australia, Botany, Computer science, Environmental sciences, QK1-989, FOS: Biological sciences, Environmental Science, Psychotherapist, species distribution

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    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    26
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
26
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
gold