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https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-...
Part of book or chapter of book . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
License: Springer TDM
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Species Distribution Based-Modelling Under Climate Change: The Case of Two Native Wild Olea europaea Subspecies in Morocco, O. e. subsp. europaea var. sylvestris and O. e. subsp. maroccana

Authors: Kassout, Jalal; Terral, Jean‐frédéric; El Ouahrani, Abdeltif; Houssni, Mhammad; Ivorra, Sarah; Kadaoui, Khalil; El Mahroussi, Mohamed; +2 Authors

Species Distribution Based-Modelling Under Climate Change: The Case of Two Native Wild Olea europaea Subspecies in Morocco, O. e. subsp. europaea var. sylvestris and O. e. subsp. maroccana

Abstract

Climate change is expected to greatly alter and modify the ecological conditions of plant growth and distribution, particularly in the Mediterranean Basin, considered as one of the most vulnerable zone to global warming in the world. In this chapter, we look at the biogeography of the olive tree, an emblematic species of the Mediterranean Basin, represented in Morocco by two wild subspecies: Olea europaea subsp. europaea var. sylvestris, the ancestor of all the olive varieties and widely distributed in the country, and Olea e. subsp. maroccana, endemic in a restricted southwestern area. We hypothesis, within the context of future warming, an increase of O. e. subsp. e. var. sylvestris distribution area is expected, while for O. e. subsp. maroccana, an alteration of its distribution is predicted, increasing seriously the risk of extinction. In order to assess the current and future potential geographic distribution of the two wild olive species in Morocco, a species distribution based-modelling was performed to understand the relationships between species distributions and climatic factors, on the basis of field data and 19 climatic variables. Two representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used to forecast the future distribution of the two wild olive subspecies in 2050 and 2070. To avoid multicollinearity, the highly correlated climatic variables (r > 0.9, Pearson correlation coefficient) were deleted from the independent variables list. The Jackknife test was carried out to evaluate the relevance of the climatic variables for predictive modeling. The maximum entropy model for the current distribution of both species provides a satisfactory result, with a high value of the Area Under Curve equal to 0.980 (±0.001) for Olea europaea subsp. europaea var. sylvestris and equal to 0.997 (±0.001) for Olea europaea subsp. maroccana. Jackknife test indicates that precipitation and temperature variables play a significance role in wild olive species biogeographical dynamics in Morocco. The study results confirm our hypothesis of an expansion of O. e. subsp. e. var. sylvestris suitable area and the threatened aspect of Olea e. subsp. maroccana under climate change scenarios. The approach used in this study is promising to predict the potential distribution of wild olive species, and can be an effective tool to support conservation and restoration programs

Country
France
Keywords

Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, Morocco, [SDV.EE.BIO] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Bioclimatology, wild olive, Olea europaea subsp. europaea var. sylvestris, Climate change, Olea europaea subsp. maroccana, [SDV.BV.BOT] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology/Botanics

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
13
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
Related to Research communities
Energy Research