The Great Tōhoku-Earthquake and the following nuclear meltdown in Fukushima called the world’s attention to Japans’ energy and climate policy. Japan is one of the biggest emitters of greenhouses gases in the world and is still facing problems of reaching its Kyoto target by domestic reductions. Emissions trading has been used in Japanese climate policy since 2005. However, major emission reductions have not been achieved and a functioning market does not exist. Hence, using an advanced Public Choice approach, we ask for the political reasons for the failure of ambitious carbon markets in Japan and how the earthquake has influenced the political chances of emissions trading. Also, we evaluate Public Choice’s arguments and environmental policy making. We show that in Japan, even after some positive promising developments, chances for an ambitious carbon market are still very low. We also show that a Public Choice that takes exogenous conditions into account delivers important insights into climate policy decision making.