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Climate change impacts on European agriculture revisited: adding the economic dimension of grasslands

Forage and more widely grassland systems are difficult to analyze in economic terms because a large proportion of what is produced is not marketed. Economic misestimation of these farm products may dramatically alter projected climate change impacts. This study estimates the economic value of grass and assesses the impact of climatic variations on grassland–livestock systems by taking various environmental and climatic factors into account. Accordingly, grass yield responses to nitrogen inputs (N-yield functions) have been simulated using the grassland biogeochemical PaSim model and then fed into the economic farm-type supply AROPAj model. We developed a computational method to estimate shadow prices of grass production, allowing us to better estimate the effects of climatic variability on grassland and crop systems. This approach has been used on a European scale under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate scenarios (AR4 A2 and B1). Results show a significant change in land use over time. Accordingly, due to decreases in feed expenses, farmers may increase livestock, thereby increasing overall greenhouse gas emissions for all scenarios considered. As part of autonomous adaptation by farming systems, N-yield functions extending to pastures and fodders allow us to improve the model and to refine results when marketed and non-marketed crops are considered in a balanced way.
- UNIVERSITE PARIS DESCARTES France
- Unité Mixte de Recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial France
- Unité Mixte de Recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial France
- Département Sciences sociales, agriculture et alimentation, espace et environnement France
- National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment France
[ SDE.MCG ] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, changement climatique, modèle agricole, 330, programmation mathématique, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Bio-economic farm model, Climate change, Biogeochemical grassland model, Grass shadow prices, global change, mathematical programming
[ SDE.MCG ] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, changement climatique, modèle agricole, 330, programmation mathématique, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Bio-economic farm model, Climate change, Biogeochemical grassland model, Grass shadow prices, global change, mathematical programming
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).3 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Average
