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Environmental Geochemistry and Health
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
License: Springer TDM
Data sources: Crossref
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Forecasting Nitrous Oxide emissions based on grey system models

Authors: Muhammad Mohsin; Muhammad Mohsin; Yasir Ahmed Solangi; Jijian Zhang; Huaping Sun; Jingjing Jiang;

Forecasting Nitrous Oxide emissions based on grey system models

Abstract

Accurate forecasting is required to measure future national energy performance levels in order to establish clear policies for both monitoring and reducing Nitrous Oxide and other harmful emissions. Using the well-established and accepted measures, we predict the Nitrous Oxide emissions for the year 2030 based on actual data from the years 2000 to 2016 for six countries responsible for 61% of global emissions (China, Indonesia, India, Japan, Russia and the USA). Three advanced mathematical grey predictions models were employed, namely the Even Grey Model (1, 1), the Discrete Grey Model (1, 1) and the Non-homogeneous Discrete Grey Model, which is capable of working with poor or limited data. Results showed that the Non-homogeneous Discrete Grey Model was a better fit and proved more effective in forecasting Nitrous Oxide emissions because it produced the lowest mean absolute percentage error for all countries when compared to the Even Grey Model (1, 1) and the Discrete Grey Model (1, 1). The mean absolute percentage error of the Even Grey Model (1, 1) was 2.4%, that of the Discrete Grey Model (1, 1) was 2.16%, and that of the Non-homogeneous Discrete Grey Model was 1.9%. Furthermore, the results show that China has the highest Nitrous Oxide emissions during the years studied (China 20,578,144, Russia 1,705,110, India 7,806,137, Indonesia 3,405,389, USA 8,891,219 and Japan 780,118). This study also suggests some implications for both academicians and practitioners in respect of reducing Nitrous Oxide emission levels.

Keywords

Air Pollutants, China, Nitrous Oxide, India, Models, Theoretical, United States, Russia, Japan, Indonesia, Air Pollution, Humans, Forecasting

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    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
28
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%