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Stock Returns, Crude Oil and Gold Prices in Turkey: Evidence from Rolling Window-Based Nonparametric Quantile Causality Test

handle: 11467/7029
This study explores the time-varying efects of crude oil prices (OP) and gold prices (GP) on the Turkish stock market using a weekly data series from November 26, 1989 to July 10, 2022. For this purpose, we develop a new hybrid technique, the rolling window-based nonparametric quantile causality test, which allows the inves tigation of time-varying causality at various quantiles. The results reveal that (i) under all market conditions, there is time-varying causality from crude OP and GP to Turkish stock market returns (SMR) and volatility. (ii) The causal efects of both crude OP and GP on stock market volatility are larger than their causal efects on SMR. (iii) The crude OP have a greater impact on SMR than the GP, while the GP has a greater impact on stock market volatility than the crude OP. (iv) Both crude OP and GP have the strongest (least) causal impact on SMR and volatility under normal (bullish) market conditions. (v) Crude OP and GP have a greater impact on stock market volatility than on stock returns under all market conditions. Overall, our results highlight that OP and GP have a strong impact on the Turkish stock mar ket, and this impact varies by returns and volatility. Therefore, fnancial investors should consider the volatility of crude OP and GP in the Turkish stock market.
- Osmaniye Korkut Ata University Turkey
- Istanbul Commerce University Turkey
- Gaziosmanpaşa University Turkey
- Osmaniye Korkut Ata University Turkey
- Gaziosmanpaşa University Turkey
Crude oil prices, Gold prices, Stock returns, Volatility, Rolling windows, Quantile causality test
Crude oil prices, Gold prices, Stock returns, Volatility, Rolling windows, Quantile causality test
