Abstract Future gas supply and demand patterns of the European Community are simulated using a gas trade model (GTM). This study is intended to provide an economic background for exploring the future policies of the main suppliers of the Community, the type of price movements that can be expected and the possible role of high cost gas. Simulations are provided for both short-term (1985–1990) and long-term (1995–2000) developments. A decrease in Dutch gas prices, Algeria's price concession and abandonment of high prices for Norwegian gas are the main trends arising from the analysis. They all materialized between 1985 and the first half of 1986.