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Annals of Epidemiology
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Impacts of climate change on water-related mosquito-borne diseases in temperate regions: A systematic review of literature and meta-analysis

Authors: Zemichael Gizaw; Eunice Salubi; Alain Pietroniro; Corinne J. Schuster-Wallace;

Impacts of climate change on water-related mosquito-borne diseases in temperate regions: A systematic review of literature and meta-analysis

Abstract

Mosquito-borne diseases are a known tropical phenomenon. This review was conducted to assess the mecha-nisms through which climate change impacts mosquito-borne diseases in temperate regions. Articles were searched from PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Embase databases. Identification criteria were scope (climate change and mosquito-borne diseases), region (temperate), article type (peer-reviewed), publication language (English), and publication years (since 2015). The WWH (who, what, how) framework was applied to develop the research question and thematic analyses identified the mechanisms through which climate change affects mosquito-borne diseases. While temperature ranges for disease transmission vary per mosquito species, all are viable for temperate regions, particularly given projected temperature increases. Zika, chikungunya, and dengue transmission occurs between 18-34 °C (peak at 26-29 °C). West Nile virus establishment occurs at monthly average temperatures between 14-34.3 °C (peak at 23.7-25 °C). Malaria establishment occurs when the consecutive average daily temperatures are above 16 °C until the sum is above 210 °C. The identified mechanisms through which climate change affects the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in temperate regions include: changes in the development of vectors and pathogens; changes in mosquito habitats; extended transmission seasons; changes in geographic spread; changes in abundance and behaviors of hosts; reduced abundance of mosquito predators; interruptions to control operations; and influence on other non-climate factors. Process and stochastic approaches as well as dynamic and spatial models exist to predict mosquito population dynamics, disease transmission, and climate favorability. Future projections based on the observed relations between climate factors and mosquito-borne diseases suggest that mosquito-borne disease expansion is likely to occur in temperate regions due to climate change. While West Nile virus is already established in some temperate regions, Zika, dengue, chikungunya, and malaria are also likely to become established over time. Moving forward, more research is required to model future risks by incorporating climate, environmental, sociodemographic, and mosquito-related factors under changing climates.

Country
Canada
Keywords

570, Climate Change, Disease transmission, Temperature, Extreme weather events, 610, Vector Borne Diseases, Mosquito Vectors, Temperate regions, Malaria, Culicidae, Models, Waterborne Diseases, Climate change, Animals, Humans, Water-related mosquito-borne diseases, Mosquito-borne diseases, Mosquito-Borne Diseases

  • BIP!
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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    9
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
9
Average
Average
Top 10%
Green
hybrid
Related to Research communities
Energy Research