A significant portion of electricity consumed worldwide is used to power thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) such as air conditioners, refrigerators, and water heaters. Because the short-term timing of operation of such systems is inconsequential as long as their long-run average power consumption is maintained, they are increasingly used in demand response (DR) programs to balance supply and demand on the power grid. Here, we present an \textit{ab initio} phase model for general TCLs, and use the concept to develop a continuous oscillator model of a TCL and compute its phase response to changes in temperature and applied power. This yields a simple control system model that can be used to evaluate control policies for modulating the power consumption of aggregated loads with parameter heterogeneity and stochastic drift. We demonstrate this concept by comparing simulations of ensembles of heterogeneous loads using the continuous state model and an established hybrid state model. The developed phase model approach is a novel means of evaluating DR provision using TCLs, and is instrumental in estimating the capacity of ancillary services or DR on different time scales. We further propose a novel phase response based open-loop control policy that effectively modulates the aggregate power of a heterogeneous TCL population while maintaining load diversity and minimizing power overshoots. This is demonstrated by low-error tracking of a regulation signal by filtering it into frequency bands and using TCL sub-ensembles with duty cycles in corresponding ranges. Control policies that can maintain a uniform distribution of power consumption by aggregated heterogeneous loads will enable distribution system management (DSM) approaches that maintain stability as well as power quality, and further allow more integration of renewable energy sources.

17 pages, 16 figures