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Applied Energy
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Applied Energy
Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
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A multi-resolution and multivariate analysis of the dynamic relationships between crude oil and petroleum-product prices

Authors: Josué M. Polanco Martínez; Luis M. Abadie; J. Fernández-Macho;

A multi-resolution and multivariate analysis of the dynamic relationships between crude oil and petroleum-product prices

Abstract

This paper proposes the use of a novel multivariate, dynamic approach wavelet local multiple correlation (WLMC) (Fernández-Macho, 2018) to analyse the relationship between oil time series in the time-scale domain. This approach is suitable for use with energy data of any kind that change over time and involve heterogeneous agents who make decisions across different time horizons and operate on different time scales. The study of the links between multivariate oil time series is of great importance in energy research, e.g., it is extremely important for petroleum industry refiners and investors to know the relationships and margins between output prices and crude oil costs. The estimation of wavelet correlations in a multivariate framework between such prices is a suitable way to analyse crude oil and petroleum products as a system. To exemplify the use of WLMC, we analyse the relationships between the prices of seven commodities: West Texas Intermediate crude oil and six distilled products (conventional gasoline, regular gasoline, heating oil, diesel fuel, kerosene and propane) from 10/06/2006 to 17/01/2017. The results reveal that the wavelet correlations are strong throughout the period studied and there is a strong decay in correlation values from 2013 to 2015. The most plausible explanation for this decay is overproduction of tight oil in the U.S. and a slowdown in global demand for oil. Furthermore, our results also reveal that heating oil, diesel and kerosene maximise the multiple correlation with respect to the other oil variables on different scales, indicating that these products are the most dependent variables in the crude-product/price system. WLMC offers new opportunities for applications in energy research and other fields. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
38
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
hybrid