Abstract Green infrastructure (GI) is a low-carbon solution for urban rainwater management. Hydrological processes and the corresponding emissions of greenhouse gas (GHG) during rainfall events are optimized by GI when the latter is compared with a traditional urban drainage system. This study establishes an city-scale quantitative analysis, based on hydrological processes, with which to assess the contribution of GIs to low-carbon urban drainage systems and cities. The emission factor method is applied to measure GHG emissions. Attributable sources of emissions are wastewater treatment plants and wastewater and rainwater pumps. The amount and rate of change in GHG emissions were selected as indicators of the impacts of GI-based urban drainage systems and a case study was conducted in Dongying, China, based on 48 hydrological scenarios from 1970 to 2017. The amount of annual GHG emissions decreased by 3752.5 to 26238.9 tons of CO2 equivalent at an average of 10677.3 tons/a. The rate of annual GHG emissions decreased by 25.9–68.7% with an average reduction of 45.9%. An S-shaped logistic curve fit the data, indicated that annual rainfall is non-linearly and positively correlated with both the amount and rate of annual GHG emissions mitigated. The probability of benefits to GHG emissions in the 48 hydrological scenarios is analyzed based on a Pearson type III distribution curve. These findings can provide information that local authorities can use to guide policies towards their goals of applying GIs to mitigate GHG emissions in the urban drainage system.