<script type="text/javascript">
<!--
document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>');
document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=undefined&type=result"></script>');
-->
</script>

COPY SCRIPT

For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu

Accuracy indicators for evaluating retrospective performance of energy system models

descriptionPublicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article 01 Nov 2022 Switzerland, Switzerland Publisher:Elsevier BVJournal:Applied Energy, volume 325, page 119,906 (issn: 0306-2619,

Authors: Wen, Xin; Jaxa-Rozen, Marc; Trutnevyte, Evelina;

doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119906

Accuracy indicators for evaluating retrospective performance of energy system models

- Summary
- Subjects
- Metrics

Abstract

Retrospective evaluation of energy system models and scenarios is essential for ensuring their robustness for prospective policy support. However, quantitative evaluations currently lack systematic methods to be more holistic and informative. This paper reviews existing accuracy indicators used for retrospective evaluations of energy models and scenarios with the aim to find a small suite of complementary indicators. We quantify and compare 24 indicators to assess the retrospective performance of D-EXPANSE electricity sector modeling framework, used to model 31 European countries in parallel from 1990–2019. We find that symmetric mean percentage error, symmetric mean absolute percentage error, symmetric median absolute percentage error, root-mean-squared logarithmic error, and growth error together form the most informative suite of indicators. This study is the first step towards developing a model accuracy testbench to assess energy models and scenarios in multiple dimensions retrospectively.

Countries

Switzerland, Switzerland

Related Organizations

University of Geneva
Switzerland

Keywords

Optimization, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/333.7-333.9, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550, Energy scenarios, Energy system models, Accuracy indicators, Energy projections, Model evaluation

Impact byBIP!

	citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).	22
	popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.	Top 10%
	influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).	Top 10%
	impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.	Top 10%