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Bayesian averaging-enabled transfer learning method for probabilistic wind power forecasting of newly built wind farms

This paper proposes a technique for the probabilistic wind power forecasting (WPF) of a newly built wind farm (NWF) using a limited amount of historical data. First, the state-of-the-art Transformer network is employed to capture the power generation pattern of different wind farms (WFs) based on abundant historical training samples. Then, the Bayesian averaging regression method is applied to transfer the learned power generation pattern to the NWF by assigning proper weights to the WPF results of different WFs. This enables the proposed method to yield accurate NWF power predictions utilizing a limited amount of historical data. The Bayesian characteristics further enable the quantification of multiple uncertainties in forecasting results that may be essential for the NWF operator when the input is uncertain. Comprehensive tests were also performed by employing other deterministic and probabilistic WPF methods using field data. By comparing the results, the proposed method is demonstrated to produce accurate forecasting results with sparse historical data. Moreover, the uncertainties of outcomes are quantified, and acceptable performance is achieved.
- Aalborg University Library (AUB) Aalborg Universitet Research Portal Denmark
- University of Electronic Science and Technology of China China (People's Republic of)
- University of Electronic Science and Technology of China China (People's Republic of)
- Aalborg University Denmark
- Fudan University China (People's Republic of)
Transformer network, Newly built wind farm, Bayesian averaging regression, Probabilistic wind power forecasting
Transformer network, Newly built wind farm, Bayesian averaging regression, Probabilistic wind power forecasting
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).10 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
