Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ University of Southe...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
Applied Energy
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
versions View all 1 versions
addClaim

This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.

You have already added 0 works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.

Explainable deeply-fused nets electricity demand prediction model: Factoring climate predictors for accuracy and deeper insights with probabilistic confidence interval and point-based forecasts

Authors: Sujan Ghimire; Mohanad S. AL-Musaylh; Thong Nguyen-Huy; Ravinesh C. Deo; Rajendra Acharya; David Casillas-Pérez; Zaher Mundher Yaseen; +1 Authors

Explainable deeply-fused nets electricity demand prediction model: Factoring climate predictors for accuracy and deeper insights with probabilistic confidence interval and point-based forecasts

Abstract

Electricity consumption has stochastic variabilities driven by the energy market volatility. The capability to predict electricity demand that captures stochastic variances and uncertainties is significantly important in the planning, operation and regulation of national electricity markets. This study has proposed an explainable deeply-fused nets electricity demand prediction model that factors in the climate-based predictors for enhanced accuracy and energy market insight analysis, generating point-based and confidence interval predictions of daily electricity demand. The proposed hybrid approach is built using Deeply Fused Nets (FNET) that comprises of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Bidirectional Long-Short Term Memory (BILSTM) Network with residual connection. The study then contributes to a new deep fusion model that integrates intermediate representations of the base networks (fused output being the input of the remaining part of each base network) to perform these combinations deeply over several intermediate representations to enhance the demand predictions. The results are evaluated with statistical metrics and graphical representations of predicted and observed electricity demand, benchmarked with standalone models i.e., BILSTM, LSTMCNN, deep neural network, multi-layer perceptron, multivariate adaptive regression spline, kernel ridge regression and Gaussian process of regression. The end part of the proposed FNET model applies residual bootstrapping where final residuals are computed from predicted and observed demand to generate the 95% prediction intervals, analysed using probabilistic metrics to quantify the uncertainty associated with FNETS objective model. To enhance the FNET model’s transparency, the SHapley Additive explanation (SHAP) method has been applied to elucidate the relationships between electricity demand and climate-based predictor variables. The suggested model analysis reveals that the preceding hour’s electricity demand and evapotranspiration were the most influential ...

Country
Australia
Keywords

330, Machine learning models, Deeply fused nets model, Cities sustainability and development, Electricity consumption

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    4
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
Average
Average
Average
Green
hybrid
Related to Research communities
Energy Research