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Seasonal predictions of energy-relevant climate variables through Euro-Atlantic Teleconnections

Authors: Cionni, Irene; Lledó, Llorenç; Torralba, Verónica; Dell’Aquilaa, Alessandro;

Seasonal predictions of energy-relevant climate variables through Euro-Atlantic Teleconnections

Abstract

The goal of this analysis is the better understanding of how the large-scale atmospheric patterns affect the renewable resources over Europe and to investigate to what extent the dynamical predictions of the large-scale variability might be used to formulate empirical prediction of local climate conditions (relevant for the energy sector). The increasing integration of renewable energy into the power mix is making the electricity supply more vulnerable to climate variability, therefore increasing the need for skillful weather and climate predictions. Forecasting seasonal variations of energy relevant climate variables can help the transition to renewable energy and the entire energy industry to make better informed decision-making. At seasonal timescale climate variability can be described by recurring and persistent, large-scale patterns of atmospheric pressure and circulation anomalies that interest vast geographical areas. The main patterns of the North Atlantic region (Euro Atlantic Teleconnections, EATCs) drive variations in the surface climate over Europe. We analyze reanalysis dataset ERA5 and the multi-system seasonal forecast service provided by Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). We found that the observed EATC indices are strongly correlated with surface variables. However, the observed relationship between EATC patterns and surface impacts is not accurately reproduced by seasonal prediction systems. This opens the door to employ hybrid dynamical-statistical methods. The idea consists in combining the dynamical seasonal predictions of EATC indices with the observed relationship between EATCs and surface variables. We reconstructed the surface anomalies for multiple seasonal prediction systems and benchmarked these hybrid forecasts with the direct variable forecasts from the systems and also with the climatology. The analysis suggests that hybrid methodology can bring several improvements to the predictions of energy relevant Essential Climate Variables. This work was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme [Grant Numbers. No 776787, H2020 S2S4E] and by the National Italian project PAR 2019–2021 1.8 ‘Energia dal Mare’. Peer Reviewed

Countries
Spain, Italy
Keywords

Seasonal forecasting, Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia, Meteorology. Climatology, Simulació per ordinador, Renewable Energy, H1-99, :Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida::Climatologia i meteorologia [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC], Teleconnections (Climatology), Social sciences (General), Teleconnections, Renewable sources of energy, Climate variations, QC851-999, Value of service

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
views
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5
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