Abstract Building energy efficiency is important for reaching both global climate goals and European Union energy efficiency goals. Although building energy efficiency is a long-time government priority, renovation projects are developing at a rather slow rate and may be an obstacle for a transition to a low carbon energy system. The development of Energy Service Companies in the building renovation sector is even slower. The systems dynamic model for building renovations has been already developed in 2011. With more data on renovated buildings it is possible to improve the performance of the model, analyze the impact of support measures, including grant schemes, and propose a support intensity for future programs. It was found that grant schemes are beneficial for the energy performance measures, however, insufficient for fast implementation of large scale energy efficiency improvements.