Abstract Ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems have been considered to be a low-carbon technology to provide heating and cooling for buildings in urban environments. This study focuses on the short-and long-term evolution of groundwater temperature induced by high-density GSHP installations in an urban residential area in Cologne, Germany. Specifically, a 2D heat transport model considering both thermal convection and conduction has been constructed using the finite element simulator OpenGeoSys. The simulated temperature changes within the initial few years were compared to the monitored dataset, while the GSHP heating load and thermal conductivity were calibrated. Subsequently, the validated model was run for 25 years to evaluate the long-term trend of the subsurface temperature. Also, effects of model uncertainties were explored with different simulated scenarios. Results indicate that sufficiently large groundwater flow and a high cooling ratio can effectively mitigate ground cooling. Based on these findings, best and worst-case scenarios were formulated for the studied case and the sustainability of GSHP operation were evaluated accordingly. As an outcome, specific design and operation criteria were proposed for the sustainable utilization of shallow geothermal energy for the heating and cooling of buildings in urban areas.