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Improving aggregated baseline load estimation by Gaussian mixture model

Authors: Yufan Zhang; Qian Ai; Zhaoyu Li;

Improving aggregated baseline load estimation by Gaussian mixture model

Abstract

With the liberalization of the retail market, new parties such as load aggregators are participating in the demand response (DR). Aggregated baseline load (ABL) estimation provides a basis for aggregators to quantify the total responsiveness. This paper aims to improve the ABL estimation accuracy by using Gaussian mixture model (GMM). Modeling the distribution of consumption patterns by Gaussian distributions, GMM first divides the customers into several groups. Then, support vector regression (SVR) is utilized to estimate the baseline load over each group. And the estimated loads are summed up to form the final result. We make comprehensive comparisons in the case study. The results prove that the proposed method can improve the ABL estimation accuracy. And it is better than similar day, exponential moving average, and other regression model-based estimation methods.

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Keywords

Demand response, Gaussian mixture model, Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering, Aggregated baseline load estimation, Aggregator, TK1-9971

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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    17
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
17
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
gold