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Improving aggregated baseline load estimation by Gaussian mixture model

With the liberalization of the retail market, new parties such as load aggregators are participating in the demand response (DR). Aggregated baseline load (ABL) estimation provides a basis for aggregators to quantify the total responsiveness. This paper aims to improve the ABL estimation accuracy by using Gaussian mixture model (GMM). Modeling the distribution of consumption patterns by Gaussian distributions, GMM first divides the customers into several groups. Then, support vector regression (SVR) is utilized to estimate the baseline load over each group. And the estimated loads are summed up to form the final result. We make comprehensive comparisons in the case study. The results prove that the proposed method can improve the ABL estimation accuracy. And it is better than similar day, exponential moving average, and other regression model-based estimation methods.
- Shanghai Jiao Tong University China (People's Republic of)
- Shanghai Jiao Tong University China (People's Republic of)
Demand response, Gaussian mixture model, Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering, Aggregated baseline load estimation, Aggregator, TK1-9971
Demand response, Gaussian mixture model, Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering, Aggregated baseline load estimation, Aggregator, TK1-9971
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).17 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
