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Energy Reports
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
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Examining the long term relationships between energy commodities prices and carbon prices on electricity prices using Markov Switching Regression

Authors: Moutinho, Victor; Oliveira, Henrique Viana Espinosa De; Mota, Jorge;

Examining the long term relationships between energy commodities prices and carbon prices on electricity prices using Markov Switching Regression

Abstract

The present work aims to quantitatively measure the relationships between the price of energy commodities, coal, gas natural, fuel oil, carbon prices and the price of wholesale electricity in the Iberian Electricity Market, using 2018 daily data. To examine this relationship, we considered both techniques, Markov-Switching Dynamic Regression and Markov-Switching Autoregressive Regression, and proposed two equations with electricity price and coal price as dependent variables. According to the parameters estimated in the model, coal and gas affect the cost of electricity moderately at times in the day that are highly recessive. During the 2018 daily periods analysed, the relative changes in gas and coal prices led to a loss of competitiveness of natural gas, increased by the moderate evolution of carbon prices, and therefore the cost of coal fell sharply in the recent past. The evolution of both time-varying transition probabilities and energy commodities prices variables is informative. The transition probabilities of staying in the same state change throughout our sample of energy commodities and wholesale electricity prices.

Country
Portugal
Keywords

Electricity prices, Markov-Switching, CO2 prices, Commodities prices, Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering, Iberian electricity market (MIBEL), TK1-9971

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
views
OpenAIRE UsageCountsViews provided by UsageCounts
downloads
OpenAIRE UsageCountsDownloads provided by UsageCounts
15
Top 10%
Average
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62
48
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