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Surrogate modeling for long-term and high-resolution prediction of building thermal load with a metric-optimized KNN algorithm

During the pre-design stage of buildings, reliable long-term prediction of thermal loads is significant for cooling/heating system configuration and efficient operation. This paper proposes a surrogate modeling method to predict all-year hourly cooling/heating loads in high resolution for retail, hotel, and office buildings. 16 384 surrogate models are simulated in EnergyPlus to generate the load database, which contains 7 crucial building features as inputs and hourly loads as outputs. K-nearest-neighbors (KNN) is chosen as the data-driven algorithm to approximate the surrogates for load prediction. With test samples from the database, performances of five different spatial metrics for KNN are evaluated and optimized. Results show that the Manhattan distance is the optimal metric with the highest efficient hour rates of 93.57% and 97.14% for cooling and heating loads in office buildings. The method is verified by predicting the thermal loads of a given district in Shanghai, China. The mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) are 5.26% and 6.88% for cooling/heating loads, respectively, and 5.63% for the annual thermal loads. The proposed surrogate modeling method meets the precision requirement of engineering in the building pre-design stage and achieves the fast prediction of all-year hourly thermal loads at the district level. As a data-driven approximation, it does not require as much detailed building information as the commonly used physics-based methods. And by pre-simulation of sufficient prototypical models, the method overcomes the gaps of data missing in current data-driven methods.
- The University of Texas System United States
- Aalto University Finland
- Tongji University China (People's Republic of)
ta212, Building construction, Surrogate modeling, Thermal load prediction, K-nearest-neighbors, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, Pre-design, Manhattan distance, TD1-1066, TH1-9745
ta212, Building construction, Surrogate modeling, Thermal load prediction, K-nearest-neighbors, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, Pre-design, Manhattan distance, TD1-1066, TH1-9745
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).16 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
