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Energy and Built Environment
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC ND
Data sources: Crossref
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Energy and Built Environment
Article . 2025
Data sources: DOAJ
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An hourly solar radiation prediction model using eXtreme gradient boosting algorithm with the effect of fog-haze

Authors: Chunxiao Zhang; Yingbo Zhang; Jihong Pu; Zhengguang Liu; Zhanwei Wang; Lin Wang;

An hourly solar radiation prediction model using eXtreme gradient boosting algorithm with the effect of fog-haze

Abstract

Hourly global solar radiation data is an important factor for solar energy utilization. Due to the lack of solar radiation observation stations in many areas, some hourly solar radiation models are proposed to predict hourly solar radiation. However, the existing models perform poorly in heavy fog-haze areas because the weakening effect of fog-haze on solar radiation is not considered. Thus, in this paper, hourly global solar radiation prediction models are developed considering air quality index (AQI) using XGBoost algorithm. The results show a general improvement in the accuracy of models with AQI as an additional input (Model B1-B6) compared to models that do not consider AQI (Model A1-A6). Compared to Model A, Model B have an increase in R value from 0.927 to 0.948, a decrease in RMSE value from 0.300 to 0.282 and a decrease in MAPE value from 0.159 to 0.145. In addition, for hourly solar radiation prediction, the six most important inputs are the day of the year, air temperature difference, surface temperature difference, hour, AQI, and total cloud cover.

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Keywords

Building construction, Hourly solar radiation, Model accuracy, Air quality index, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, Fog-haze, TD1-1066, TH1-9745

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    popularity
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    influence
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
Average
Average
Average
gold