Abstract Photovoltaic (PV) connected systems are experiencing rapid market growth. This is due to the continually downward trend in PV cost together with government support programs. A scenario has been assumed to analyse the geographical market of PVs. The results provide clear evidence of the influence that some variables have on the profitability of PV investments. This study presents a model for minimising investment risk and maximising the return of a renewable energy portfolio in Italy. The value of the paper is in showing that the energy and CO 2 reduction potential that can be reached through consumer-oriented policy measures, but the paper also looks at the effectiveness and social implications of such measures. Private households possess immense unused potential for energy reductions (and climate protection) that could be realised through gains in energy efficiency, behavioural changes, and extended use of low-emission energy. The focus of energy policy has been on businesses rather than on private households, which are only partly captured by direct policy measures. To achieve the goals of climate policies, the current political and scientific discussion increasingly considers measures that aim to reduce energy consumption in the private sector. Quantitative estimates are presented for economic indicators and will show the various effects of policy measures on the implemented household types.