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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Energy Economicsarrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Energy Economics
Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
Energy Economics
Article . 2016
Data sources: Ciência-UCP
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Valuing an offshore oil exploration and production project through real options analysis

Authors: Jose Guedes; Pedro A. Santos;

Valuing an offshore oil exploration and production project through real options analysis

Abstract

To be useful to project managers, real option analysis (ROA) needs to capture the unique characteristics of individual projects and, at the same time, remain tractable and intuitive. That is a challenge since actual projects are often complex, featuring multiple sources of uncertainty as well as multiple investment and operating options. To meet the challenge, ROA has to take a clinical approach to project management and valuation, tailoring its framework to the specifics of each individual project to reflect its main sources of flexibility without becoming overly complex. This paper undertakes a ROA of an offshore oil development project of an integrated oil and gas company. The sequence and interconnections of available real options - exploration options, appraisal options, scaling options and abandonment options - as well as the calibration of the model's parameters, are developed in close collaboration with the Exploration and Production (E&P) division of the company, to assure realism and adherence to what management believes are the key sources of investment flexibility in a typical offshore project. The project assumes that there is joint uncertainty about reserve size and the price of oil. While the first source of uncertainty is resolved through exploration and appraisal activities the second is resolved through a diffusion model. The available real options add a substantial value to the project, with the option to abandon being the most valuable.

Country
Portugal
Keywords

Valuing project flexibility, Price uncertainty, Reserve size uncertainty, Real option analysis, Upstream petroleum industry

  • BIP!
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    citations
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    44
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
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    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
44
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%