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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Energy Economicsarrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Energy Economics
Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
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Composite forecasting approach, application for next-day electricity price forecasting

Authors: Atom Mirakyan; Andreas Koch; Martin Meyer-Renschhausen;

Composite forecasting approach, application for next-day electricity price forecasting

Abstract

Abstract Accurate forecasting of electricity prices can provide significant benefits to energy suppliers when allocating their assets and to energy consumers for defining an optimal portfolio. There are numerous methods that efficiently support the forecasting of time series, such as electricity prices, which have high volatility. However, the performance of these approaches varies depending on data sets and operational conditions. In this work, the concept of composite forecasting is presented and implemented in a retrospective study, in real industrial forecasting conditions to show the potential of forecast performance improvement and comparable high consistency of a forecast performance across different ‘Day Peak’ and ‘Day Base’ electricity price data sets for different seasons. As individual methods support vector regression, artificial neural networks and ridge regression are implemented. The forecast performances of these methods are evaluated and compared with their forecast combination using different error measures. The results show that composite forecasting processes with ‘inverse root mean squared error’ combination approach can generate, on average, a more accurate and robust forecast than using an individual methods or other combination schemas.

  • BIP!
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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    41
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
41
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%