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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Energy Economicsarrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Energy Economics
Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
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Exploiting the heteroskedasticity in measurement error to improve volatility predictions in oil and biofuel feedstock markets

Authors: Hung Xuan Do; Russell Smyth; Emawtee Bissoondoyal-Bheenick; Robert Darren Brooks;

Exploiting the heteroskedasticity in measurement error to improve volatility predictions in oil and biofuel feedstock markets

Abstract

Abstract We examine whether heteroskedasticity in measurement errors improves the volatility forecasting ability of the Heterogenous Autoregressive (HAR) model in crude oil and biofuel feedstock markets. We also examine the incremental explanatory power of jumps and the investor fear gauge (IFG) over heteroskedasticity in measurement errors in improving the volatility forecasting ability of the HAR model in each of these markets. For the in-sample evaluation, we find that exploiting the heteroskedasticity of measurement errors in the HAR model improves the model's goodness of fit (measured by adjusted R2) by up to 10% depending on the market. IFG has a significant incremental role over heteroskedasticity in measurement errors in improving the fit of the HAR model in both the crude oil and biofuel feedstock markets, while jumps have a significant incremental role in improving the fit of the HAR model in the crude oil market, but not the biofuel feedstock markets. For the out-of-sample forecasts, including regime switching improves volatility predictions in the corn and wheat markets across all forecasting horizons, while for the soybean market, including regime switching improves the performance of multi-step volatility forecasts. In the out-of-sample forecasts the best ranked models almost always include heteroskedasticity of measurement error and IFG.

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
15
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%