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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Energy Economicsarrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Energy Economics
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
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The dynamics and elasticities on the U.S. natural gas market. A Bayesian Structural VAR analysis

Authors: orcid Michał Rubaszek;
Michał Rubaszek
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Michał Rubaszek in OpenAIRE
orcid Karol Szafranek;
Karol Szafranek
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Karol Szafranek in OpenAIRE
orcid Gazi Salah Uddin;
Gazi Salah Uddin
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Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

Gazi Salah Uddin in OpenAIRE

The dynamics and elasticities on the U.S. natural gas market. A Bayesian Structural VAR analysis

Abstract

Abstract Natural gas is an important source of energy in the global economy, hence understanding the drivers of its prices is of significant interest for economic agents. This paper investigates the role of structural shocks for the dynamics of the U.S. natural gas market within the Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression framework applied by Baumeister and Hamilton (2019a, AER), to the crude oil market. This approach provides clear intuition for the identification strategy and allows us to correctly estimate the short-term price elasticity of natural gas supply and demand. Our results indicate that the former is low, whereas the latter is higher than the average estimate in the literature. We also show that market specific demand shocks explain a dominant fraction of natural gas prices variability, while the contribution of supply, aggregate economic activity and inventory shocks is important only during specific market events such as the recent outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, we illustrate how changes in supply in the era of shale gas revolution contributed to the dynamics of natural gas prices.

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