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Energy Economics
Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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UCL Discovery
Article . 2023
Data sources: UCL Discovery
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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Modeling final energy demand and the impacts of energy price reform in Saudi Arabia

Authors: De Lipsis, Vincenzo; Gasim, Anwar; Agnolucci, Paolo; Ekins, Paul;

Modeling final energy demand and the impacts of energy price reform in Saudi Arabia

Abstract

We model energy demand across five end-use sectors and 15 energy products in Saudi Arabia, generating comprehensive price and income elasticity estimates. Using the Structural Time Series Model, we demonstrate that the trends underlying energy demand are generally stochastic, underscoring the importance of using such models for estimating unbiased elasticities. Our estimates reveal that energy demand in Saudi Arabia is price inelastic in all cases and income inelastic in most cases, with industrial natural gas and electricity being the only exceptions. Nevertheless, we find extensive variation in the elasticities across sectors and energy products, highlighting the importance of using sector- and product-specific elasticity values and not assuming they are similar in the same country. We then use our estimated elasticities to conduct a welfare analysis of the energy price reforms implemented in 2016 and 2018. Our analysis reveals that the 2016 reform delivered a total annual welfare gain of 11.6 billion 2010 United States Dollars (USD) in 2016. Following the 2018 reform, the annual welfare gain increased to 17.0 billion 2010 USD in 2018. We also estimate the cumulative carbon dioxide emissions avoided between 2016 and 2018 due to energy price reform at 164 million tonnes.

Country
United Kingdom
Keywords

Energy price reform, Energy demand, 330, Elasticities, Saudi Arabia, Welfare analysis, 336, 339, Time series econometrics

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    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
9
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%