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Warming the MATRIX: Uncertainty and heterogeneity in climate change impacts and policy targets in the Euro Area

handle: 10281/493779 , 10807/278020 , 11379/598506
This paper explores the potential impacts of climate change and mitigation policies in the Euro Area, considering the uncertainty and heterogeneity in both climate and economic systems. Using the MATRIX model, a multi-sector and multi-agent macroeconomic model, we simulate various climate scenarios by employing different carbon cycle models, damage functions, and marginal abatement curves found in the literature. We find that heterogeneous climate damages amplify both the magnitude and the volatility of GDP losses associated with global warming. By the end of the century, we estimate that assuming homogeneous shocks may underestimate the effects of climate change on aggregate output by up to one-third. Moreover, we find that the speed and feasibility of a low-carbon transition crucially depend on (i) the ambition in emission reduction targets set by the policymaker, which determine the level of a carbon tax, and (ii) the rate of technological progress, which influences the shape of the abatement cost curve.
Agent-based models; Climate change; Climate policy; Emission abatement; Energy sector; Macroeconomic dynamics;, Agent-based models; Macroeconomic dynamics; Climate change; Climate policy; Emission abatement, Energy sector, Agent based models, Macroeconomic dynamics, Climate change, Climate policy, Emission abatement
Agent-based models; Climate change; Climate policy; Emission abatement; Energy sector; Macroeconomic dynamics;, Agent-based models; Macroeconomic dynamics; Climate change; Climate policy; Emission abatement, Energy sector, Agent based models, Macroeconomic dynamics, Climate change, Climate policy, Emission abatement
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).2 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Average
