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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Energy Economics
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
SSRN Electronic Journal
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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The role of geopolitical and climate risk in driving uncertainty in European electricity markets

Authors: Peter Cincinelli; Elisabetta Pellini;

The role of geopolitical and climate risk in driving uncertainty in European electricity markets

Abstract

This paper examines the occurrence of price bubbles in wholesale day-ahead electricity markets and investigates the impact of geopolitical and climate risk on such extreme price movements. The empirical analysis is executed for twelve major European electricity markets, namely APX (Netherlands), BPX (Belgium), EEX (Germany), EPX (United Kingdom), GME (Italy), NordPool (Finland, Norway and Sweden), OMEL (Portugal), OPCOM (Romania) and POWERNEXT (France). Our findings reveal that the probability of price bubbles increases with higher geopolitical risk and elevated air temperatures, while it decreases with greater precipitation and stronger wind speed. Specifically, a one-unit increase in geopolitical risk raises the probability of price explosiveness by 8.23%. These results underscore the urgent need for European countries to accelerate renewable energy deployment, enhance power system flexibility, and strengthen electricity market integration. Such measures are critical to achieving cli...

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
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Energy Research