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At what valuation of sustainability can we abandon fossil fuels? A comprehensive multistage decision support model for electricity planning

handle: 2429/58546
Predominance of fossil-fuel technologies and lack of enough incentives to expand sustainable technologies has intensified energy issues and the global warming problem. Combining mathematical programming and decision-making techniques, this paper proposes a novel comprehensive multistage method to insert sustainability costs in determining the optimum strategy of energy system expansion for an energy-rich developing country. Since the sustainability attributes have the same value respecting all conversion technologies, a nonlinear equal-weight data envelopment analysis is used to evaluate the technologies based on environmental, social and economic sustainability dimensions, the weightings associated with which are calculated. Sustainability costs, including pollutant emission costs, water and land utilization, etc. are then calibrated by the weightings and a mixed integer programming model is used to determine the optimum share of each technology in electricity generation for Iran, during the period of 2013-2040. The results suggest a late shift from fossil-fuel consumption by increasing the share of renewable energies. The model demonstrates that in countries with excessive fossil-fuel resources and high contribution of fossil-fuel technologies, including sustainability costs/benefits cannot lead to commercialization of renewable energy technologies, unless governments design effective incentive/tax policy, or fuel prices ascend again. The recent fuel price drop even deteriorates the situation.
- Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Canada
- University of Tehran Iran (Islamic Republic of)
- National Science Foundation United States
- University of British Columbia Canada
- Mexico's National Council for Science and Technology Mexico
690, Multistage decision support model, Electricity generation expansion planning, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Sustainability costs, MESSAGE
690, Multistage decision support model, Electricity generation expansion planning, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Sustainability costs, MESSAGE
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).37 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
